Northern Iowa vs Illinois State College Basketball Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for MVC Tournament

The No. 6 seed Northern Iowa Panthers (20-12, 11-9 MVC) square off against the No. 3 seed Illinois State Redbirds (20-11, 12-8 MVC) in the MVC tournament Friday at Enterprise Center, starting at 9:30 p.m. ET. Both teams will attempt to take one step closer to earning an automatic place in the NCAA Tournament.

Before you place your bet on this matchup at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are the NCAA basketball odds and spreads you need to know.

Northern Iowa vs. Illinois State Game Info and Odds

• Game day: Friday, March 6, 2026
• Game time: 9:30 p.m. ET
• TV channel: ESPN+
• Location: St. Louis, Missouri
• Arena: Enterprise Center

Northern Iowa vs. Illinois State Picks and Prediction

All college basketball win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: Northern Iowa win (60.8%)

See the betting insights and trends below before making a bet on Friday's Northern Iowa-Illinois State spread (Northern Iowa -1.5) or total (125.5 points).

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Northern Iowa vs. Illinois State: ATS Betting Stats and Trends

• Northern Iowa has put together a 15-15-0 record against the spread this season.
• Illinois State has covered 17 times in 30 matchups with a spread this year.
• Illinois State covers the spread when it is a 1.5-point underdog or more 50% of the time. That's more often than Northern Iowa covers as a favorite of 1.5 or more (45.8%).
• The Panthers have done a better job covering the spread in road games (7-4-0) than they have in home games (7-9-0).
• Against the spread, the Redbirds have performed better at home (10-4-0) than away (4-8-0).
• Northern Iowa has beaten the spread 10 times in 21 conference games.
• Illinois State has covered the spread 11 times in 20 MVC games.

Northern Iowa vs. Illinois State: Moneyline Betting Stats

• Northern Iowa has come away with 16 wins in the 24 contests it has been listed as the moneyline favorite in this season.
• This year, the Panthers have won 16 of 22 games when listed as at least -126 or better on the moneyline.
• Illinois State has gone 4-6 in games it was listed as the moneyline underdog (winning 40% of those games).
• In games they have played as a moneyline underdog with odds of +105 or longer, the Redbirds have a 2-4 record (winning just 33.3% of their games).
• Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that Northern Iowa has a 55.8% chance of pulling out a win.

Northern Iowa vs. Illinois State Head-to-Head Comparison

• Northern Iowa has a +262 scoring differential, topping opponents by 8.2 points per game. It is putting up 69.3 points per game to rank 324th in college basketball and is giving up 61.1 per contest to rank first in college basketball.
• Trey Campbell leads Northern Iowa, scoring 13.5 points per game (482nd in the nation).
• Illinois State outscores opponents by 7.6 points per game (posting 75.9 points per game, 178th in college basketball, and allowing 68.3 per outing, 47th in college basketball) and has a +236 scoring differential.
• Illinois State's leading scorer, Chase Walker, is 461st in the country, averaging 13.6 points per game.
• The Panthers lose the rebound battle by 2.4 boards on average. They record 28.6 rebounds per game, which ranks 329th in college basketball, while their opponents grab 31 per contest.
• Tristan Smith averages 5.2 rebounds per game (ranking 514th in college basketball) to lead the Panthers.
• The Redbirds win the rebound battle by an average of 4.2 boards. They are grabbing 33.4 rebounds per game (102nd in college basketball) compared to their opponents' 29.2.
• Walker tops the Redbirds with 5.2 rebounds per game (514th in college basketball).
• Northern Iowa puts up 98.2 points per 100 possessions (168th in college basketball), while allowing 86.6 points per 100 possessions (25th in college basketball).
• The Redbirds rank 100th in college basketball with 101 points scored per 100 possessions, and 73rd defensively with 90.9 points conceded per 100 possessions.

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