Noche UFC Best Bets and Props: Lopes vs. Silva

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight.

Without further delay, here are a few best bets from Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva, taking place at the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, Texas on Saturday.

Noche UFC Betting Picks

Claudio Puelles vs. Joaquim Silva

Puelles to Win (-120)

This could be a soft landing spot for Claudio Puelles to end a two-fight losing skid.

Grappling specialists are a dying breed in modern MMA, but Puelles is precisely that, attempting an impossible ratio of takedowns (0.59) to significant strikes (3.18) per minute. Puelles landed seven mat returns on Fares Ziam (7-2 UFC) in his last bout but was unlucky to lose via split decision. That concern is probably baked in against Joaquim Silva.

Silva, though, has lost four of six fights with his only wins coming over 41-year-old Clay Guida and Jesse Ronson (0-5 UFC). He's now 36 with a bizarre combination of striking inefficiency (-0.87 striking success rate; SSR), minimal wrestling offense, and serviceable jiu-jitsu that hasn't resulted in a win or loss via submission in his entire UFC career dating back to 2015.

As a result, Puelles might have difficulty finding a third UFC sub, but Silva has been takedown down six times in his last three bouts, and Puelles has those skills.

I've got the Pervian as 55.2% likely to win this one.

Alexander Hernandez vs. Carlos Diego Ferreira

Ferreira to Win (-120)

This was my first bet this week.

It's a classic spot to sell Alexander Hernandez's mammoth upset of Chase Hooper last month. Hooper's ugly 39% striking D reared its head in that one, but Carlos Diego Ferreira is a notorious plus (55%) in that department as a well-rounded ranked contender for years.

Of course, "CDF" is 40 now, but he really isn't fighting like it. Ferreira's comeback win over Mateusz Rebecki (4-2 UFC) and survival against Grant Dawson (11-1-1 UFC) is a duo of results that look like a ranked lightweight whose takedown D (57%) is a little suspect. Hernandez (3.33 takedowns per 15 minutes) is not a tremendous threat to wrestle.

On the feet, Ferreira's +1.36 SSR smashes a -0.24 SSR for "The Great Ape". He'll have a two-inch reach edge, as well.

Hooper had been finished in that exact method before and showed minimal improvement to defend his head or take punches. Ferreira can do both, and he has two UFC wins by submission to Hernandez's zero.

I've got Ferreira 54.1% likely to win this fight, yet he was at plus money as recently as Monday. I'd shop this line.

Kelvin Gastelum vs. Dustin Stoltzfus

Stoltzfus to Win (+210)
Stoltzfus by Submission (+1300)

I still don't think the UFC understands who Dustin Stoltzfus is.

Stoltzfus has faced a brutal strength of schedule His six losses have come to fighters with a combined 34-24 UFC record as a show of might and experience. Kelvin Gastelum hasn't been on that plane for a long, long time.

The former title challenger is now 13-10 in his career and has been sent to middleweight after consistent weight failures at 170 pounds. He's small for the division, recording a mediocre takedown D (58%) and having been tapped twice with submissions at 185.

Gastelum's power is also overrated at this point. His SSR (+0.18) and knockdown rate (0.75 KD%) are barely in front of Stoltzfus' (+0.00 and 0.68%), and all of the grappling upside belongs to the underdog. He's scored upsets with 2.26 takedowns and 1.3 submission attempts per 15 minutes.

Reputation is such a powerful thing in UFC betting. Just because Stoltzfus is 3-6 with the promotion doesn't mean he hasn't competed with fighters that, frankly, haven't even provided such a clear path to victory. I've got the underdog as 46.8% likely to win and have modeled him 22.2% likely to find the submission. It's beyond obvious when you look past KG's name value.

Rafa Garcia vs. Jared Gordon

Garcia to Win (+190)
Garcia by Points (+400)

It's interesting Jared Gordon is such a large favorite on the concept of road soil.

"Flash" is popular because he's a great human that's overcome addiction, and he scored his first two knockdowns and knockouts in his last three bouts. At 37, is he tangibly improving, or has the competition degraded? I think it's a little of both.

Rafa Garcia is great matchup for him -- beyond just representing Mexico on his country's Independence Day weekend. Garcia has never been dropped in 543 career significant strikes absorbed, and he's a strong wrestler at 3.82 takedowns per 15 minutes. That's a huge change of pace from Gordon's last six foes, who have gone 0-for-6 on takedowns, and it's much closer to Grant Dawson and Joe Solecki -- who landed 11 combined on the Queens native in consecutive bouts.

My model has always really liked Gordon's +1.76 SSR, but at an advanced age and having minimal knockout power overall (0.20 KD%), it's tough to see him stopping Garcia inside the distance, and there's a distinct pattern of the former featherweight struggling to defend wrestling from naturally sized 155ers.

I've got this fight going its full distance 73.0% of the time, which alone doesn't show value against FanDuel's -250 odds. However, I've got "Gifted" Rafa as 46.4% likely to win. It's a win on the cards 31.2% of the time.

Diego Lopes vs. Jean Silva

Silva Wins Inside the Distance (-130)
Silva by (T)KO in Round 3, 4, or 5 (+290)

Are the "Fighting Nerds" frauds after an 0-2 run last week in Paris? Yes...no...maybe?

Jean Silva will try to get the team back on track in a statement that would almost certainly earn him a future crack at the title after Alexander Volkanovski's next date with Lerone Murphy. It would be their first UFC title opportunity, but "Lord" has certainly earned it with five (T)KOs in five tries. The peripheral 2.05 KD% is absurd, and the efficiency (+0.76 SSR) is there.

The grappling questions were answered in earnest when he stuffed 13 of 14 takedowns from Bryce Mitchell and submitted him. Diego Lopes has attempted just five takedowns in eight UFC-affiliated bouts, so this one likely plays out at distance.

All of our worst fears about Lopes were somewhat confirmed against Volk. The champ made it look easy with a +95 striking differential, and that was sort of to be expected when Lopes' striking accuracy (47%) and defense (46%) are both poor. He's just been a hammer with a 1.25 KD%. When the early finish didn't come, it was a lot of empty volume.

Two guys with insane power and submissions threats are why my model (82.3%) and FanDuel (-300 odds) are pretty aligned on this one not going the distance. I'm going to have to take the more polished, technical, and accurate favorite, though.

I've got Silva 56.5% likely to find a finish in this one. Lopes showed quite the chin in that Volkanovski bout, but the champ's power is nowhere close to Silva's.

Considering Lord's only submission attempts have come off opposing takedowns so far and Diego doesn't wrestle, I like sprinkling the late (T)KO in this fight, as well. The model has a knockout 33.2% likely.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.