NHL Betting Picks for Wednesday 12/27/23: Leafs Could Dominate Battle of Ontario

The NHL returns from the brief winter break with 14 games on the slate, so we have plenty of options for wagering.

Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com.

NHL Best Bets

Winnipeg Jets at Chicago Blackhawks

Over 5.5 Goals (-130)

We'll start with a Central Division matchup where the total seems a bit too low.

The Winnipeg Jets lost their best goalscorer in Kyle Connor a few weeks ago, and that would have seemingly damaged their offense. Instead, it's allowed other players to step up and ignite the team.

Gabriel Vilardi spent time injured but is now healthy, and with Connor out, he's excelling. He has 12 points in his last five games, with a goal in each of them.

This play from Vilardi has allowed the Jets' offense to keep humming. In their last five games, they've scored five or more in four of them. Three of those games were against very good defensive teams in the Los Angeles Kings, Boston Bruins and Colorado Avalanche.

The Chicago Blackhawks are not a good offensive team, but they have some capable players. Connor Bedard has 30 points in 33 games and is the team's best player by far even as a rookie.

The Jets are third in goals against per game, but they rank closer to the middle of the pack in metrics like high-danger chance rate and expected goals against rate.

With the way Winnipeg has been playing, they could possibly get to this total by themselves, but Chicago shouldn't be written off to add a few, as well.

Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs

Maple Leafs -1.5 (+138)

The Battle of Ontario should be one of the most fun games of the night, as both of these teams played some wild games last week.

The Ottawa Senators blew multiple-goal leads in their first two games under interim coach Jacques Martin. Leaking goals has been a problem for them all season thanks to their shaky goaltending.

The Sens have the league's fourth-worst team save percentage in the league. It's not confirmed who will start at this time between Joonas Korpisalo and Anton Forsberg, but both have allowed more goals than expected based on the type of chances they've faced.

The Toronto Maple Leafs have Auston Matthews buzzing, as their star center has gone absolutely nuclear this month. He has scored 14 goals in his nine games in December and has only one game this month without a goal.

The Leafs' offense overall averages the third-most goals per game. They'll have Martin Jones in net, who has been surprisingly solid since joining the team. He has saved 3.3 goals above expected in six games.

If there was ever a team Toronto can rack up goals against at home, it's likely Ottawa. Getting +138 on the chance that they'll win by at least two goals makes a lot of sense tonight.

Dallas Stars at St. Louis Blues

Over 6.5 Goals (-122)

This game should be another fun one, and we can expect some scoring.

The St. Louis Blues are one of the most interesting teams over the past few weeks. They made a coaching change, had drama with a player being booed by his own fans, and played some high-scoring games.

Their last outing was a 7-5 game on Saturday, and they've already played against the Dallas Stars once under new coach Drew Bannister. That game ended 4-3 in overtime. In every game under Bannister, at least one team has scored four goals -- which is obviously necessary for the game going over the total.

The Stars have become a very deep team in their forward ranks, and it's helped their offense overall. They average the sixth-most goals per game in the league.

Another angle to this game going over is the fact that both teams will be starting their backup goalie. For Dallas, it's a significant downgrade to go from Jake Oettinger to Scott Wedgewood. Wedgewood has allowed 0.32 goals above expected per 60 minutes, while Oettinger has allowed 0.09 per 60.

The difference between Joel Hofer and Jordan Binnington is negligible, but Binnington is more capable of having higher highs than Hofer.

St. Louis' top line of Pavel Buchnevich, Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou combined for six goals in the last two games. If they remain hot, they could definitely contribute to this game going over the total.

Looking for more NHL betting opportunities? Check out all of the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.