NHL Betting Picks for Tuesday 3/5/24: Can Nashville Stay Red Hot?

Nicholas Vazquez
Nicholas Vazquez@nickvaz
NHL Betting Picks for Tuesday 3/5/24: Can Nashville Stay Red Hot?

We nearly started off the week a perfect three for three, but a pesky goal at the end of the last game last night made that go over the total. Let's see if we can keep that momentum going tonight.

Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com.

NHL Best Bets

Montreal Canadiens at Nashville Predators

Predators -1.5 (+108)

It's been a great run for the Nashville Predators. They've won eight games in a row after their 9-2 loss on February 15th and look like a team that will be in the playoffs.

What's even more impressive is that they've won every game by multiple goals. That includes a 5-1 win over the Colorado Avalanche on Saturday. Their underlying numbers are great, too, as they've controlled 56.22% of the expected goals (xG) during this streak.

With the Preds ripping off multi-goal wins over several playoff contenders, it shouldn't be too difficult for them to beat the Montreal Canadiens at home by more than a goal. Montreal has gone 2-6-2 in their last 10 games and has the fourth-worst goal differential in the NHL. They're 45.61% xG rate is also the fourth-worst in the league.

The improved play of Juuse Saros is a big factor in this bet. The Finnish netminder has allowed just eight goals over his last six games, getting back to the form that saw him nominated for the Vezina Trophy in 2022.

I don't mind backing the hottest team in the league to cover the spread here, and I like getting better than even money on them to do it. The model at numberFire agrees with this bet, giving Nashville -1.5 a one-star rating.

Seattle Kraken at Winnipeg Jets

Under 5.5 Goals (-110)

We lost on a Seattle Kraken under last night, but they're going up against a better defensive team tonight.

Seattle put up four goals on 30 shots last night but now will go up against the league's best goalie in Connor Hellebuyck. Hellebuyck has saved .709 goals above expected per 60 minutes this season -- well above the second=placed Jacob Markstrom (.486), who was Seattle's opponent last night.

The Winnipeg Jets are also a better overall defensive team. They are second in goals allowed per game and concede the 11th-fewest xG per 60 minutes at five-on-five.

Where the Jets have struggled a bit is in their scoring. They are 17th in goals per game and also 17th in xG per 60 minutes. In addition to that, they will have to play this game without Gabriel Vilardi, who is fourth on the team with 0.79 points per game.

Seattle's Joey Daccord has a respectable +7.3 goals saved above expected (GSAx) this season. He should be able to hold down an average Jets offense.

numberFire's model also gives this bet a one-star rating, and it makes sense given what we know about these teams.

St. Louis Blues at New York Islanders

Blues Moneyline (+150)

The St. Louis Blues picked up a win last night, which keeps their slim playoff hopes alive.

They'll face another team that is on the playoff bubble tonight, the New York Islanders. The Islanders currently sit five points out of the last Metropolitan Division playoff spot and six points out of a wild card. They also have games in hand on both teams they are chasing.

The Isles were supposed to go under a revolution with new coach Patrick Roy, but it hasn't really happened. They've won just seven of 15 games and control only 47.71% of the five-on-five shot attempts.

This +150 moneyline seems like a great number to get on the Blues against the Islanders. New York is being propped up in the standings by a flaw in the NHL's point system.

Sure, they are close to being in the playoffs, but they have 20 regulation losses and 14 overtime losses, which give them a point. They have just 26 wins on the season.

St. Louis can keep the game close and win in overtime like they did last night, and we know the Isles are prone to having that happen.

numberFire's model likes St. Louis' side in this game, as it believes this game will be closer than the odds suggest.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.