NHL Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Sunday 10/15/23

It's a quiet Sunday (as most are in the NHL during NFL season), but an early-season injury has given us at least one competitive game. Without it, we may have had two contenders facing two pretenders.

Whether it's moneylines, total goals, or player props, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season long. It's a long 82-game season, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Tampa Bay Lightning at Ottawa Senators

Senators -1.5 (+184)
Brady Tkachuk 5+ Shots on Goal (+130)
Brady Tkachuk 2+ Points (+215)

The Ottawa Senators saved their best for today's action, which makes their status as a surprise favorite by name value incredibly easy to justify.

Against the lowly Philadelphia Flyers, backup goalie Anton Forsberg got the nod and saved 19 of 21 shot attempts. Forsberg posted 2.94 goals saved above expectation (GSAx) last year, which ranked a healthy 42nd of 102 qualifying netminders. However, starter Joonas Korpisalo (16.72 GSAx) ranked 16th himself. He's the better option to face off with this potent Tampa Bay Lightning attack.

Tampa did the exact opposite. They used Jonas Johansson (3.32 GSAx in 2022-23) in last night's loss to the Detroit Red Wings, and now they'll turn to Matt Tomkins due to the back-to-back. Tomkins posted a 2.54 GAA in the Swedish Hockey League last year, but he's a total unknown and career journeyman below the NHL level.

Frankly, the odds behind this puckline -- and really, a late Sens lead padded with an empty-net goal -- are too steep with that the case. Ottawa is 15th in expected goals per 60 (3.34) to begin the season, and a poor goaltender can pay quickly against them. Carter Hart let in five pucks on Saturday.

As a result, I also think we can turn to the Sens' lead man for some offense tonight. Tkachuk rested a bit in Saturday's blowout, logging a manageable 18:45 TOI. He still recorded four shots in that one, and he averaged 4.23 per game a year ago. We've got plus money behind a busy day for him, and he's projected by numberFire's model for the second-most shots (3.47) and sixth-most points (0.87) on the slate at a median.

Carolina Hurricanes at Anaheim Ducks

Ducks +1.5 (+100)
Trevor Zegras Anytime Goal (+260)

We've got both teams in Anaheim on a back-to-back, but this time, stronger goalies are actually taking over.

The Carolina Hurricanes took a 6-5 shootout win over the Los Angeles Kings last night, which could produce some tired leagues through the extra period. In goal, Carolina will turn to Antti Raanta, who is a true 1B option to their "1A" with Frederik Andersen. In fact, Raanta posted a higher GSAx (5.48) than Andersen (2.59) last year.

However, the reason I like the Ducks in this spot is that they actually upgrade when their large goalie contract heads to the bench. John Gibson (-2.31 GSAx in 2022-23) surrendered four to the Vegas Golden Knights on Saturday, and now it'll be Lukas Dostal's turn. Dostal was 37th across the league in GSAx last year (3.53), so Anaheim might turn to him as a starter this season when enough becomes enough.

That's an upgrade over usual expectation for this Ducks team, and we're a getting a goal at even money. I'm especially interested because the Canes have just a 48.1 expected-goals-for percentage (xGF%) in 2023-24 so far, and if they're not playing at their best on no rest, they can be beaten by a Ducks team that took it easy in last night's rout.

These odds for Anaheim's best player to score are interesting, too. numberFire's model is assigning a median expectation to Zegras scoring 0.34 goals, which if translated to a probability would be a 34% chance of one. These +260 odds for Zegras to score imply just a 27.8% chance it happens.

Looking for more NHL betting opportunities? Check out all of the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.