NHL Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Saturday 1/13/24

Saturday usually means a busy night on the ice, and we've got all 32 teams in action at some point today. With no shortage of options to choose from, there are some pretty tasty wagers sitting at FanDuel Sportsbook's proverbial kiosks.

Whether it's moneylines, total goals, or player props, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season long. It's a long 82-game season, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

NHL Best Bets

San Jose Sharks at Ottawa Senators

Over 6.5 (-130)
Fabian Zetterlund to Record a Point (+114)

These two offenses haven't exactly lit it up in 2023-24, but they're fighting at an equal competition level today.

The San Jose Sharks' defense has fallen entirely off the rails. They're allowing a league-high 3.69 expected goals per 60 minutes, and Mackenzie Blackwood's hot stretch has come to a screeching halt. In the past month of play, Blackwood has posted -3.50 goals saved above expectation (GSAx), which is 11th-worst in the NHL during that time.

However, the very worst goaltender in the sport resides in the opposing Ottawa Senators crease. Joonas Korpisalo has posted -8.61 GSAx in the past 30 days, and he's a near lock to start due to Anton Forsberg's recent injury.

Ottawa is 14th in expected goals per 60 (3.12) as is, so we know they'll likely find some success on the lowly Sharks. However, if Korpisalo continues to let a cheap goal or two past him, we're cooking with gas for an over here.

If San Jose is finding the board, expect first-line winger Fabian Zetterlund to be a reason why. The former third-rounder has three points in six January contests with a sizable TOI average (18:56).

Zetterlund is projected for 0.51 points in this game by numberFire's player projections, which would translate to -104 odds. These odds are a bargain for a guy that will be on the ice plenty should this game shoot out.

Anaheim Ducks at Tampa Bay Lightning

Ducks +1.5 (-114)

Frankly, the Tampa Bay Lightning only deserve a line like this by reputation.

Tampa Bay just isn't the same version that won a pair of Stanley Cups in 2020 and 2021. They're 20th in expected-goals-for rate (49.6 xGF%) across the NHL, and former Vezina winner Andrei Vasilevskiy (1.72 GSAx in the past 30 days) hasn't exactly made up the difference.

Therefore, a struggling Anaheim Ducks team is slightly favored to keep things within a goal here for good reason. By and large, Anaheim's skaters haven't performed well (44.7 xGF%), but their goaltending has made the difference. Lukas Dostal is a budding star, ranking fourth in GSAx (8.03) over the past 30 days.

The Ducks are 23-18 against the spread (ATS) this season. I'm not sure the market has adjusted to how often Dostal or veteran John Gibson are able to stand on their head. A bottom-third team like Tampa shouldn't have an even-money puckline in this spot.

Seattle Kraken at Columbus Blue Jackets

Kraken -1.5 (+150)
Oliver Bjorkstrand to Record a Point (-115)

As Elvis Merzlikins of the Columbus Blue Jackets remains benched for a role dispute, his team will likely continue to flounder.

Columbus is the third-worst team in the NHL by xGF% (44.5%), and their goaltending has gotten improbably worse despite the struggling Merzlikins' demotion. Daniil Tarasov has posted -7.43 GSAx in the past 30 days -- the fourth-worst mark in hockey.

Therefore, I'm even willing to leap to the puckline with tonight's visitors: the Seattle Kraken. Not only has Seattle been a much better team within its skaters this season (49.7 xGF%), but the Winter Classic's star from two weeks ago hasn't slowed down. Joey Daccord leads the NHL in GSAx (14.73) over the past month of play.

How about a revenge prop to go with them, though? Oliver Bjorkstrand was a Blue Jacket for seven seasons before getting scooped up by Seattle in the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft, and he's wholly contributed with 31 points in 41 games this season.

Bjorkstrand skates on the team's top power play comes scoring time with a decent TOI average in January (13:48) for a scoring specialist. numberFire has him projected for 1.12 points on Saturday, so we can feel comfortable with a tiny bit of juice that he records a point for a third straight game.

Colorado Avalanche at Toronto Maple Leafs

Under 6.5 (+114)

The Colorado Avalanche and Toronto Maple Leafs are elite offensive clubs, but bettors might be ignoring their defensive capabilities in this spot, as well.

Colorado has ceded the 11th-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.94), and Toronto isn't far behind with the 16th-fewest (3.07). These are not "poor" defenses that would otherwise merit heavy juice to a 6.5-goal over.

That's especially true when their current goaltenders are hot. In the past month of play, Toronto's Martin Jones is 6th in GSAx (7.15), and Alexandar Georgiev is 18th (2.35) coming off a brilliant shutout of the Vegas Golden Knights on Wednesday.

numberFire's model expects this game to fall short of seven goals 48.5% of the time, so the 46.7% implied odds here create a bit of value in what could be a Stanley Cup Finals preview.

Arizona Coyotes at Minnesota Wild

Coyotes ML (+105)
Lawson Crouse Anytime Goal (+250)

Even on the road, the Arizona Coyotes shouldn't be underdogs today against a Minnesota Wild team on the second leg of a back-to-back.

That situation will force Minnesota to turn toward Jesper Wellstedt for his second start of the season, and the first wasn't great. Wellstedt allowed 7 goals on 34 total shots to the Dallas Stars -- good for an ugly .809 save rate. That translated to -3.36 GSAx in a single game, too.

On the flip side, Arizona's Connor Ingram is a stud. He's posted 12.69 GSAx this season (11th in the NHL) despite a recent rough patch against some tough opponents.

Minnesota (50.2 xGF%) just doesn't have that much of an advantage skating over the Yotes (48.3 xGF%) to justify backing their rookie goaltender -- especially with winger Kirill Kaprizov still out of the lineup.

Wellstedt's struggles open the door for a scoring prop, and emerging Arizona winger Lawson Crouse can help us out. The former first-round pick has three goals in his last seven games with a massive TOI average (17:39) in January.

nF would set Crouse's odds to score at +178 with a projection of 0.36 goals, so these +250 odds to keep the scoring binge rolling are tremendous value.

Dallas Stars at Chicago Blackhawks

Over 6.5 (+106)
Roope Hintz Anytime Goal (+165)
Roope Hintz 3+ Shots on Goal (-118)

Similar to the San Jose-Ottawa tilt, these average offenses have a chance to be well above average today.

The Dallas Stars are just 15th in expected goals per 60 minutes this season (3.11), but we know the danger that comes from their top scorers historically. Dallas draws the Chicago Blackhawks on the road, and Chicago might be the best matchup in the sport for offense right now.

In addition to ceding 3.29 expected goals per 60 (seventh-worst in hockey), both of their goaltenders are in the league's bottom 30 for GSAx in the past month of play.

On the flip side, Dallas' goaltending situation is poor, as well. In the past 30 days, neither Jake Oettinger (-1.97 GSAx) nor Scott Wedgewood (-7.62 GSAx) has been able to reliably answer the call.

nF's model expects this over to cash 50.2% of the time, so we'll happily take plus money. Its player projections also love Roope Hintz to do some damage to the struggling Blachkawks in this one.

Hintz, centering the Stars' top even-strength and power-play unit, is projected for 0.54 goals. That would translate to -117 odds for a score. He's also projected 2.93 shots on goal, and shot volume would correlate well with scoring -- directed at those interested in a potential Same Game Parlay for this one at FanDuel.

Looking for more NHL betting opportunities? Check out all of the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.