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NFL Week 1 Spread and Total Predictions for Every Game
In the NFL, you're never lacking in prediction models to try to give you an idea of what to expect in a given week, whether those models are for betting or other purposes.
Below, we're going to run through what my spread and total models say about Week 1's NFL games.
As a disclaimer, this is my own, personal betting model. I'll lay out which bets I'm willing to make based on it compared to FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds, but as always, you'll have to decide for yourself whether there's enough value for you to the plunge, as well.
The spread model is largely based on numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) model, which is their version of EPA. The totals model factors in things such as pace and wind speed, as well. Numbers are manually edited to reflect the players who are expected to play in a given game.
Without further ado, here's what I've got for this upcoming slate of games.
NFL Week 1 Predictions
Cowboys at Eagles
Spread Prediction: Eagles -7.7
Total Prediction: 50.0
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: As you'll notice, I'm showing value in a bunch of overs this week. As a result, I want to be selective with which ones I bet so that I don't get completely crushed should the scoring environment be soft in Week 1. Thus, even though I show value here, I'm comfortable ignoring it.
Chiefs vs. Chargers
Spread Prediction: Chiefs -4.3
Total Prediction: 48.5
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Giants at Commanders
Spread Prediction: Commanders -7.6
Total Prediction: 50.8
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: This is one of the overs I'm very willing to bet. I think the New York Giants' offense will be functional with Russell Wilson, and neither defense keeps me up at night. This may be my favorite bet of the entire slate.
Panthers at Jaguars
Spread Prediction: Jaguars -1.5
Total Prediction: 47.1
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Steelers at Jets
Spread Prediction: Steelers -0.04
Total Prediction: 42.1
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: I've got value in both the over and the New York Jets' moneyline, but I don't have extreme confidence in either. Aaron Rodgers tends to operate at a hyper-slow pace, and it's possible I'm not accounting enough for that here.
Raiders at Patriots
Spread Prediction: Patriots -0.3
Total Prediction: 43.2
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: I'm still skeptical of the New England Patriots' skill players, which is why I'd have the Las Vegas Raiders favored on a neutral field. It's very possible Drake Maye decides to make me look silly for that opinion.
Cardinals at Saints
Spread Prediction: Cardinals -4.5
Total Prediction: 48.7
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: The over here is my biggest value of the week, which ain't a great feeling when one of the quarterbacks is Spencer Rattler. Still, I'm not high on either defense, and I love the potential of this Arizona Cardinals offense, so I'm willing to back this over.
Bengals at Browns
Spread Prediction: Bengals -5.2
Total Prediction: 46.5
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Dolphins at Colts
Spread Prediction: Dolphins -3.3
Total Prediction: 45.3
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: How many points are bad vibes worth against the spread? We're about to find out because I can't get anywhere close to market here. I'm comfortable betting the Miami Dolphins' moneyline even though doing so makes me want to yarf. I just do not have a high opinion of the Indianapolis Colts.
Buccaneers at Falcons
Spread Prediction: Bucs -2.2
Total Prediction: 49.5
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Titans at Broncos
Spread Prediction: Broncos -7.5
Total Prediction: 44.5
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
49ers at Seahawks
Spread Prediction: 49ers -2.4
Total Prediction: 46.9
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Lions at Packers
Spread Prediction: Lions -0.3
Total Prediction: 50.3
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: I'm hesitant to ride with the model here in the Detroit Lions' first game without Ben Johnson, Aaron Glenn, and Frank Ragnow.
Texans at Rams
Spread Prediction: Rams -1.3
Total Prediction: 47.1
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Ravens at Bills
Spread Prediction: Bills -1.4
Total Prediction: 54.4
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: This is another over I'm willing to bet. I get to cheer every time Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen does something completely unhinged? Sign. Me. Up.
Vikings at Bears
Spread Prediction: Vikings -1.0
Total Prediction: 42.9
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.
