NFL Picks Today: Best NFL Late Slate Props and Predictions (Nov. 1)

Today’s Best Late Slate NFL Props in Summary

• Chiefs-Broncos Under 40.5 Points (-105)
• Drake Maye Under 237.5 Passing Yards (-114)
• Dolphins +7.0 (-115)

The NFL doesn’t end with the 1:00 ET slate of games. The NFL's late-afternoon Sunday slate offers a smaller group of games, but that does not mean there is a shortage of appealing betting opportunities.

Using our NFL projections as a guide, here are some NFL player props and betting picks we like for today’s late slate.

All NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published. Bets in this article may be pulled from our other NFL betting content.

NFL Picks, Prop Bets for Today’s Late Slate

Chiefs-Broncos Under 40.5 Points (-105)

Chiefs at Broncos — 4:25 p.m. ET

The under at the line of 40.5 points is my favorite way to attack Sunday's Kansas City Chiefs-Denver Broncos matchup. The total has already fallen from 42.5 to 40.5 as the betting market continues to show strong support for the under.

The Broncos are averaging just 282.9 yards and 20.6 points per game on offense while ranking 31st in yards per play and 31st in third-down conversion rate. They are also averaging only 57.1 offensive plays per game, which limits the number of possessions available for both teams to produce points.

Kansas City's defense is well equipped to exploit those weaknesses. The Chiefs rank second in the NFL in points allowed at 17.2 per game and fourth in yards per play allowed. They have also surrendered only nine touchdowns all season while holding opponents to 3.57 yards per carry and 6.66 yards per pass attempt.

The recent head-to-head history points in the same direction. Seven of the last 10 meetings between these two have gone under, with those games averaging just 39.8 combined points.

Kansas City enters off a 20-3 loss to Seattle, and Denver's defense has allowed no more than 17 points in each of its last three games.

A lot of signs point to this being a low-scoring, hard-fought contest. Give me the under.

Drake Maye Under 237.5 Passing Yards (-114)

Patriots at Dolphins — 4:25 p.m. ET

The New England Patriots travel to face the Miami Dolphins, with FanDuel currently listing Drake Maye at 237.5 passing yards.

The biggest reason I like the under is Maye's home/road splits. He is averaging 272.3 passing yards per game at home this season but only 241.8 on the road. His passer rating also drops dramatically away from Foxborough, from 117.5 at home to 81.7 on the road, while he has thrown seven interceptions in four road games, compared with one in three home games.

Maye has certainly shown a high ceiling, throwing for 374 yards against Las Vegas and 321 against Chicago in his two most recent games.

But with this being on the road and with New England favored by seven points, the Pats may not ask Maye to shoulder a huge workload as a passer.

Dolphins +7.0 (-115)

Patriots at Dolphins — 4:25 p.m. ET

Sticking with the Miami-Pats divisional clash, while Miami has struggled this season, the Fins getting a full touchdown at home is enough for me to take a chance on them against the spread.

One of the biggest reasons is the aforementioned dramatic home-road splits for Maye. In four games away from home, Maye has thrown 6 touchdowns against 7 interceptions while posting an 81.7 passer rating. His yards per attempt drops from 9.3 at home to 7.7 on the road.

That doesn't mean Miami suddenly has the better team for this one, but covering seven points on the road inside the division asks a lot of New England. The Dolphins have already shown they can be competitive and are coming off their best showing of the season.

Plus, with the number at 7.0, we can get a push on the key number seven.

NFL Prop Betting FAQ

What are NFL player props?

NFL player props are bets on individual player performances rather than the outcome of the game. Common examples include passing yards, rushing yards, receiving yards, receptions, touchdowns and completions.

How do you choose the best NFL player props?

The best NFL player props are typically identified by comparing a player's expected workload and statistical production with the sportsbook's posted line. Matchup, injuries, game script and recent usage can all play a role in finding value.

Where can I bet on NFL player props?

You can bet on NFL player props at FanDuel Sportsbook, where a wide variety of markets are available for each game.

What are the most common NFL player props?

Some of the most popular NFL player props include passing yards, passing touchdowns, rushing yards, receiving yards, receptions and anytime touchdown scorer bets.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.