NFL Offensive Player of the Year Betting: Justin Fields Can Take Another Step Forward

Despite recent woes from the Chicago Bears as a team, Justin Fields is undeniably one of the most dynamic offensive weapons in the NFL.

Along with making some improvements as a passer last season, Fields electrified opposing defenses for 1,143 rushing yards and 8 rushing touchdowns. His 7.1 yards per carry was the best rate in the NFL last year.

Although quarterbacks typically get more notoriety in the MVP market, Fields absolutely has a legit chance to be named the 2023-24 AP NFL Offensive Player of the Year. His +2200 odds to win the award tie him with Lamar Jackson for the sixth-best mark, per the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

For transparency's sake, Fields is +2000 to win the next NFL MVP award, leaving him with a better payout in the OPOY market.

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

How Fields Wins

As displayed over two seasons at Ohio State, Fields possesses both elite speed (timed 4.46 40-yard dash at Buckeye Pro Day) and arm strength. Since making the jump to the NFL, Fields has not always had the most favorable playing situations in Chicago, but he has shown flashes of his X-factor traits.

Oftentimes, the Offensive Player of the Year award is thought to be geared toward non-quarterbacks since signal -callers who shine almost always receive recognition for league MVP instead. In 2022, Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson ran away with the OPOY accolade. Still, quarterbacks have won OPOY six times since 2009. Patrick Mahomes was the most recent to do it, earning the honors as recently as 2018. That year, Mahomes threw for a personal-best (and NFL-leading) 50 touchdowns and more than 5,000 yards.

The other signal-callers to be named AP OPOY since 2009 are Matt Ryan (2016), Cam Newton (2015), Peyton Manning (2013), Drew Brees (2011) and Tom Brady (2010). Of that group, Fields' skillset is most comparable to Newton's. When Newton won the OPOY award, he was also named league MVP and made the Super Bowl. With 3,837 passing yards and 35 touchdowns thrown in 2015, Newton added 636 yards on the ground for 10 rushing touchdowns.

Fields has already proven he is capable of more than that with his legs. In two professional seasons, he has totaled slightly more than 1,550 rushing yards. Perhaps not as imposing as Newtonc, Fields is still 6-foot-3, 230 pounds; a man that large is no fun to tackle.

Ultimately, the question looms: can Fields continue to make strides as a passer? He showed significant improvements from his rookie to sophomore year in the NFL, throwing for roughly 400 additional yards in Year 2 and bumping up his adjusted yards per attempt from 5.8 to 6.6.

Potential Third-Year Improvements

Just when we thought Joe Burrow could not be beat, Fields overtook him for the most sacked quarterback (51) in 2022. As is often the case, mobile quarterbacks are sacked frequently due to their ability to extend plays in lieu of simply throwing the football away. Fields will always have home-run potential with his legs, but he will need to do a better job of playing it safe when the time calls for it.

Fields' throwing arm is one of the more potent cannons in the league, but accuracy has been an issue for him through two NFL seasons. He improved to a 60.4% completion rate in his second year (from 58.9% as a rookie), but that still ranked just 31st -- leaving him worse than Davis Mills, Derek Carr and Russell Wilson in that category.

Perhaps increased continuity with the receiving corps will be advantageous for Fields in 2023. Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool are both high-ceiling playmakers entering contract seasons, with the former looking to return from a fractured fibula he suffered in Week 12 last year. Additionally, running back Khalil Herbert is servicable in both the run and pass game.

But it may ultimately be a newcomer that makes the biggest difference.

After five seasons playing for the Carolina Panthers, wideout D.J. Moore was traded to the Bears last March. Through his NFL tenure, Moore has scored 21 total touchdowns while producing three separate 1,000-yard receiving campaigns. Built like a running back (6-feet, 210 pounds) with receiver skills, Moore will be a dynamic addition to Fields' skill group. Moore hauled in four receptions of 40-plus yards last season. Adding him to Mooney and Claypool should give Fields the best downfield unit of his career.

Conclusion

The 2023-24 NFL Offensive Player of the Year odds at FanDuel Sportsbook have Justin Fields at +2200 to win. Strangely enough, his NFL MVP odds for the upcoming season are shorter at +2000. This is largely due to the fact that OPOY is awarded to non-quarterbacks with a much higher frequency than the MVP award is. Still, quarterbacks have won the AP OPOY award six times in the past 14 years.

Mahomes was the most recent signal caller to cash this market (2018), but the last dual-threat quarterback to do so was Newton in 2015. Essentially, Fields will need air and ground production similar to Newton's 2015 numbers -- 3,837 passing yards, 636 rushing yards and 45 total scores). That's no small feat but is within the realm of possibility.

Fields' offensive skill group should be improved in 2023 due to the acquisition of Moore, who could be exactly what this offense needed.

We've seen Fields improve through his two seasons, and he's capable of making another jump in Year 3.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.