NFL Offensive Player of the Year Betting: Christian McCaffrey Could Have a Monster 2023

It kind of feels like Christian McCaffrey should already have an Offensive Player of the Year award -- or at least an honorary one.

The Offensive Player of the Year (OPOY) award has usually been awarded to the player who had the most outstanding season each year on the offensive side of the ball. We’re talking about players who reached rare heights, achieved difficult milestones, broke records, or just generally balled out.

McCaffrey’s 2019 season sure met most of those requirements. As a member of the Carolina Panthers, McCaffrey became the third player in NFL history to finish a season with both 1,000 rushing yards and 1,000 receiving yards. Marshall Faulk won the OPOY award for his 1,000/1,000 season (and then won two more in a row after that for similar performances), but McCaffrey’s mantle still has an empty space where his OPOY awards should be on display.

Unfortunately for McCaffrey, as impressive as his 2019 season was -- and 2,387 yards with 19 scores from scrimmage is absolutely impressive -- he just didn’t quite outshine his competition for the OPOY award that year.

The 2019 season featured Lamar Jackson's breakout MVP campaign, during which he set the all-time record for quarterback rushing yards in a single season while leading the league in passing touchdowns. That performance only got Jackson a second-place finish in OPOY voting that year, while Michael Thomas’ record-setting season took home the honors.

It wasn’t McCaffrey’s fault he had to compete against two guys who broke NFL records.

As we head into the 2023 season, it looks like McCaffrey will have a good shot at placing his name in the Offensive Player of the Year record books. Per the Offensive Player of the Year betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, CMC is listed at +1600, the third-best odds to win the award, trailing only Ja'Marr Chase (+1200) and Justin Jefferson (+1400).

He’s finally on a competitive team and could leverage his surroundings to a successful OPOY bid in 2023.

How McCaffrey Wins

When McCaffrey has been healthy, he competes for the OPOY award. It’s kind of that simple.

Apart from his almost comical rookie season in which head coach Ron Rivera stubbornly chose to emphasize a 30-year-old Jonathan Stewart over McCaffrey (the eighth overall pick in that year’s draft), CMC has been an engine of output on the offensive side of the ball.

Excluding that rookie season, McCaffrey has averaged an insane 125.4 yards from scrimmage per game over his career. That is literally one-tenth of one yard short of Jim Brown’s all-time record of 125.5 yards from scrimmage per game. Even if you include that rookie season, McCaffrey’s average drops down to just 113.1 yards from scrimmage per game -- the sixth-best per-game rate in NFL history.

McCaffrey has managed these numbers by being one of the best pass-catching running backs of all time. He holds records for having the first- and second-most receptions in a single season for a running back in NFL history with 116- and 107-catch campaigns.

He doesn’t play like your typical “pass-catching running back” who runs a few routes out of the backfield and catches dump-off passes when his quarterback feels the pressure. He can literally play the wide receiver position. According to Pro Football Focus’ receiver grades, McCaffrey’s 92.9 grade on routes run from the slot ranked second across the entire league in 2022 - not just at the running back position. Only Tyreek Hill posted a better grade from the slot than McCaffrey last year.

Unfortunately for McCaffrey, his teams haven’t been the best at winning games despite his historically great ability to generate yards on offense. That could change in 2023 as he enters his first full season as a member of the San Francisco 49ers, who are heavy -165 favorites to win the NFC West, according to the NFL division odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Loving Life on the West Coast

McCaffrey spent the first five and a half years of his career toiling away for the Panthers. He joined the team in the twilight of Cam Newton’s Carolina tenure, and suffered through the “Matt Rhule Era,” during which he endured season-ending injuries in back-to-back seasons.

Things are looking substantially sunnier for McCaffrey for the upcoming campaign. The 49ers traded for McCaffrey midway through their impressive 2022 campaign, and he found immediate success as part of head coach Kyle Shanahan’s offensive system.

The 49ers won 10 straight games shortly after McCaffrey joined the team, and they notched 2 more wins in the playoffs before having their postseason run end in the NFC Championship game. CMC was an integral part of those victories, especially after the 49ers lost backup/starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to a season-ending injury in Week 13.

Excluding his very first game with the 49ers -- a contest in which he had only just arrived at the team’s facilities -- McCaffrey was on a 17-game pace for 257 carries, 1,204 yards, and 10 touchdowns on the ground, with 85 catches for 478 yards and 7 more touchdowns through the air.

So despite joining a team partway through the year, he was still on track for more than 1,600 yards from scrimmage and almost 20 touchdowns with that team.

The 49ers even pulled some punches during their win streak. The team was frequently blowing out their opposition, outscoring their opponents 305-144 during that stretch.

Unlike the Panthers, who ran McCaffrey into the ground as they struggled to grind out five-win seasons, the 49ers didn’t force McCaffrey to pick up empty-calorie rush attempts or to help whittle down the clock in blowouts. Instead, the team was perfectly happy letting their other backs pick up the slack.

Keeping McCaffrey fresh and healthy for a full 17-game season means he could be back near the top of OPOY ballots in 2023.

We can look at this two ways, and both seem favorable for McCaffrey. First, it sure looks like he has a better chance of playing a full season this year than he did during his tenure with the Panthers. Second, McCaffrey could be even more productive in 2023 if the 49ers win fewer games in blowout fashion.

The 49ers might still be primed for some blowout games this season as they have the fourth-easiest schedule by 2023 win totals. That means McCaffrey should be able to put up numbers earlier in games without unnecessarily wearing himself down once the score is lopsided. And now with a full offseason of preparation with the team, he and the 49ers could reach their maximum potential together.

Another 2,000-yards-from-scrimmage season could well be in the works.

Conclusion

A couple of injury-shortened seasons have done some damage to McCaffrey’s image in the public eye, but he’s more capable than just about any other player in the league of finishing the 2023 season with over 2,000 yards from scrimmage.

He’s one of the best players in the NFL, he’ll be playing on one of the best offenses, and he is in an environment that seems way more likely to keep him healthy for a full season.

McCaffrey has the third-best OPOY betting odds on the FanDuel Sportsbook at +1600, and this could be his year.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.