NFL MVP Betting: Can Trey Lance Come Full Circle?

We are still not too far removed from when the San Francisco 49ers surprised everyone by trading up in the 2021 NFL Draft to select Trey Lance third overall out of North Dakota State.

Given the emergence of Brock Purdy last season (after Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo both sustained season-ending injuries), Lance has dwindled to an afterthought for many around the organization. Still, there is a very real chance that Purdy is not healthy enough to start 2023 on the active roster after tearing his UCL in last season's NFC Championship game against the Philadelphia Eagles.

If Purdy is not medically cleared sometime in August, Lance will almost certainly be thrust into a favorable situation. Lance will have to definitively beat out veteran Sam Darnold for the starting job, but he has more time and experience with head coach Kyle Shanahan's concepts compared to Darnold.

Transparently, Lance has not taken many snaps over the past few years. However, he has shown flashes of high upside through brief work at the NFL level. It is not tough to see that Lance has a stronger arm and greater athleticism than the other signal callers on San Francisco's roster, but can he wield his abilities into consistent success on Sundays?

The NFL MVP odds at FanDuel Sportsbook have Lance at +5000 to win the AP NFL MVP award in 2023, tying him with with Kirk Cousins for the 19th-best odds. That leaves Lance with shorter MVP odds than starters Mac Jones (+6000), Matthew Stafford (+6000), and Daniel Jones (+7500).

Let's break down Lance's chances.

A Great Situation

Just as there is a quality argument to be made for Purdy's 2023 MVP chances (+4000), some of the same logic applies to Lance. The 49ers boast dynamic playmakers on offense, defense, and special teams. Regardless of who is taking the snaps in San Francisco, the quarterback will have the potential to both collect wins and compile statistics at a high level.

San Francisco's offense presents as a matchup nightmare -- especially if the duel-threat version of Lance resurfaces. Remember: multi-faceted players like Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, and Kyle Juszczyk are also members of this unit.

Lance and the 49ers are also beneficiaries of playing in a weaker division in 2023. The NFC West was arguably tops in the NFL as recently as 2021, but the bottom of the division has gradually fallen out. As the most talented team in the West, San Francisco is a perennial frontrunner in the conference. A deep run by the 49ers in 2023 with Lance at the helm would certainly do well for the third-year quarterback's MVP stock.

The 49ers' 2023 Offensive Outlook

As aforementioned, the 49ers are cooking with gas on offense. Under Shanahan, San Francisco is a team that allows the run game predicate the playbook. Given their personnel (see above names), the 49ers can give countless looks to an opposing defense while thriving through a zone-running scheme. Just when you think you have them squared-up, San Francisco will push the ball to the perimeter where Samuel, McCaffrey and Brandon Aiyuk are always home run threats. Running back Elijah Mitchell brings the boom between the tackles.

In 2022, the 49ers were fifth in the league for overall offensive yardage production despite starting three different quarterbacks. True, Lance was only around for the first two games of the season, but he has put in significant work with the group through OTAs as of late. Lance was also notably seen working with the reigning MVP, Patrick Mahomes, on multiple occasions over the offseason; candidly, I don't think that could ever be a negative thing.

It should be mentioned that they still have the services of Trent Williams in the Bay Area. Undoubtedly, Williams is one of the most gifted and dominant offensive linemen in NFL history. He rarely gets beat in pass protection and is a juggernaut in the run game. With Williams holding down the blind side, Lance (or whoever is at quarterback for the 49ers) should always operate with confidence.

A Division In Flux

At the moment, the 49ers are the favorite (-165) to win the NFC West at FanDuel Sportsbook. Additionally, San Francisco shows the shortest divisional price of any team in the NFL; the Kansas City Chiefs to win the AFC West (-160) and Jacksonville Jaguars to win the AFC South (-160) are tied for the next shortest odds in the divisional markets.

The reason for the 49ers' short prices is not only because of San Francisco's talented roster but the simple fact that the Los Angeles Rams and Arizona Cardinals both seem to be among the worst teams in the NFL this upcoming season. Arizona is in its inaugural season under first-year head coach Jonathan Gannon while the Rams have holes in their units on both sides of the ball. In 2022, the two sides combined to win a total of nine games.

To give some level of competition, the Seattle Seahawks are certainly a respectable side in the NFC West. Quarterback Geno Smith reached new heights in Seattle, but he also lost to the 49ers three times in 2022. Currently, all signs point to San Francisco winning its second consecutive divisional crown after the upcoming campaign.

Of course, winning the division is paramount for a quarterback to win MVP. The last time a player won the MVP but not his own division was when Adrian Peterson did it in 2012 with the Minnesota Vikings.

Lance's 2023 Outlook

Pending Purdy's recovery, Lance has a significant chance to resume starting quarterback duties for the San Francisco 49ers.

With Lance at the helm, the already-dynamic offense in San Francisco will gain an extra element. Lance's arm strength is superior to Purdy's, and Lance also possesses better running abilities. Opposing defenses will not be able to account for that while also keeping track of Samuel, Kittle, McCaffrey, Aiyuk, and company.

Because of pervasive talent on the roster, San Francisco is likely to win the NFC West and contend for another conference title. Being that the defense is led by All-Pros Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, Lance can advantageously improve his MVP stock by winning games and hitting his playmakers in space. Under Kyle Shanahan, Lance is in a favorable position to do both.

At the moment, Lance is at full-strength and taking all reps at the 49ers' OTAs.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.