NFL MVP Betting: Can Derek Carr Hit Top Gear?

There is no denying that Derek Carr has had an arduous career since entering the NFL back in 2014.

Carr's older brother -- David -- was notably the top overall selection in the 2002 NFL Draft, the first ever pick by the expansion Houston Texans. Of course, David's playing career did not pan out, but Derek had the luxury of growing up around an NFL environment since his youth.

Carr -- like his brother did -- went on to star at Fresno State, making the sporting world aware of future All-Pro Davante Adams in the process. The then-Oakland Raiders went on to draft Carr early in the second round of the 2014 draft. From there, Carr proceeded to break a majority of Raider Nation's passing records (completions, touchdowns and total yardage) over nine seasons at the helm.

Additionally, Carr navigated the Raiders' relocation from the Bay Area to Southern Nevada with poise, dealing with a myriad of off-field issues from teammates along the way. Genuinely, I believe Carr is someone his fellow players respect.

Suggesting Carr to win the next NFL MVP award may sound like an incredible long shot to some, but there was a time in his pro career where he absolutely was playing well enough to bring home the award. Way back in 2016, Carr was performing brilliantly behind a 63.8% completion rate with 28 touchdowns and only 6 interceptions. As fate would have it, Carr broke his leg on Christmas Eve of 2016 with the Raiders at 13-3; he wound up finishing third for the AP MVP award at season's end.

But it is now a new era for DC4. Carr will join forces with the head coach who originally drafted him in Oakland -- Dennis Allen -- as he prepares for his first season as a member of the New Orleans Saints.

Per the NFL MVP odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, Carr is at +3500 to win the AP NFL MVP award in 2023, tying him with Jordan Love of the Green Bay Packers for the 14th-best odds to take home the award. I can't say anyone knows for certain what Love will bring to the table in his first year as Green Bay's starter, but I would feel better about playing Carr in this market.

Why Derek Carr?

Carr has a few things in place to help him thrive upon joining "Who Dat" Nation. What seems to stand out most is that New Orleans already has significant talent in the offensive skill groups. There is more than one NFL All-Pro present.

Naturally, it can be tough to win the MVP award as a quarterback if your team does not win the division. Well, considering that Carr now plays in a bad NFC South, the Saints winning the division is absolutely attainable.

New Orleans also has a thoroughly impressive defense. With playmakers in all three levels, the D is led by Cameron Jordan. On the back side, safety Tyrann Mathieu patrols the skies. Cornerback Marshon Lattimore and linebacker Demario Davis are also dynamic contributors.

Truthfully, several factors seem in line for the Saints to be a very competitive team in 2023, leaving Carr with -- at least -- a puncher's chance at the 2023 MVP award.

The Saints' 2023 Offensive Outlook

In NOLA, the folks are used to seeing high-flying passing attacks. However, since Drew Brees' departure following the 2020 campaign, the Saints have fallen from a top-five scoring offense into the bottom-third of the NFL, producing only 19.4 points per game in 2022.

Playmakers Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas are still around, but there has been lack of continuity at quarterback (see: Jameis Winston, Andy Dalton or Taysom Hill). Enter Derek Carr.

Carr is a clear upgrade for New Orleans' offense. In four of his past five seasons, Carr has eclipsed the 4,000-yard passing mark. Two seasons ago (2021), he set a personal-best clip by throwing for 4,804 yards. For reference, that same year, Aaron Rodgers won the MVP with only 4,115 passing yards. In 2022, Carr's numbers dipped, but he still ranked 14th in QBR (55.5) and tossed the 12th-most touchdowns (24).

Playing at Caesars Superdome, Carr will have both the venue and supporting cast to produce elite numbers. In addition to Thomas and Kamara, wideout Chris Olave is coming off a rookie year in which he provided more than 1,000 receiving yards. Olave looks like a player who could be a star.

I also previously mentioned Taysom Hill. The Swiss Army knife seems to still have a role on the Saints even with Carr now taking the snaps under center. Being that Hill stands at 6-foot-2, 221 pounds, he will continue to present matchup problems for opposing defenses. He can throw, catch and run with power. Candidly, I think any NFL offensive coordinator would love to have a weapon like Hill.

A Weak Division

Taking the division crown is essentially a prerequisite for any quarterback to win MVP. The last occurrence of a signal-caller winning the award but not their division that same season was in 2008 -- Peyton Manning did it despite the Tennessee Titans winning the AFC South.

Fortunately for Carr and New Orleans, they currently show the shortest odds (+135) to win an NFC South that might be the worst division in the league, according to the NFL division winner odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

After the Saints, there is -- in no particular order -- the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons. The Bucs managed to win the Super Bowl just two seasons ago, but everything is different with Tom Brady now retired. Carolina will be led by top overall pick Bryce Young, and winning the division is a tough task for any rookie passer. The Falcons may be New Orleans' most formidable foe. Atlanta has young talent but hasn't had a winning record since 2017.

Of all quarterbacks currently in the NFC South, Carr is undoubtedly the most proven at the professional level. Tampa will likely start Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask while the Falcons have turned to second-year passer Desmond Ridder. For the Panthers, it is still a crapshoot on which direction Young will initially trend. Carr will likely be the cream of the crop at quarterback in the NFC South in 2023, and the team with the best quarterback usually has a great shot to win the division.

Conclusion

Entering his 10th NFL season, Carr is heading to a favorable scenario in New Orleans.

Carr's arm is capable of producing high-volume output. Combining his abilities with the Superdome's fast track and a dynamic group of skill players, the Saints could score plenty of points this season, and they get to face a down NFC South.

Priced at +3500 to win the 2023 AP NFL MVP award, Carr is a worthwhile dart throw.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.