NCAAB

NCAA Tournament Betting: UAB vs. San Diego State Picks, Prop Bets and Odds

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33
NCAA Tournament Betting: UAB vs. San Diego State Picks, Prop Bets and Odds

Very few things on the sports calendar can match the excitement and unpredictability of the NCAA Tournament. So why not add betting to the mix via the college basketball odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

The 2024 edition of the big dance has arrived, and here at FanDuel Research, we'll have you covered with a betting guide for each game.

Which bets should you consider for this Friday's game between the UAB Blazers and San Diego State Aztecs?

All college basketball odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook, and lines may change after this article is published.

NCAA Tournament Betting Picks

UAB vs. San Diego State Betting Odds

Date and Time: Friday, March 22nd at 1:45 p.m. ET

Spread: San Diego State -7.5 (-102)

Total: 138.5

Moneyline:

  • UAB: +240
  • San Diego State: -300

UAB vs. San Diego State Statistical Breakdown

Advanced stats from KenPom, Bart Torvik and numberFire.

UAB Blazers

  • numberFire Ranking: 108th
  • Bart Torvik Ranking: 109th
  • KenPom Ranking: 106th
    • Adjusted Defensive Efficiency Ranking: 202nd
    • Adjusted Offensive Efficiency Ranking: 59th
    • Adjusted Tempo Ranking: 153rd

San Diego State Aztecs

  • numberFire Ranking: 22nd
  • Bart Torvik Ranking: 28th
  • KenPom Ranking: 21st
    • Adjusted Defensive Efficiency Ranking: 9th
    • Adjusted Offensive Efficiency Ranking: 62nd
    • Adjusted Tempo Ranking: 266th

UAB vs. San Diego State Best Bet

San Diego State -7.5 (-102)

The No. 12 seed UAB Blazers finagled their way into a tournament bid after defeating a lackluster Temple team (16-20) in the AAC championship, but I don't think we should get caught backing them.

Historically, siding with a 12 seed pulling off an upset over a 5 seed isn't always a bad move.

The problem is, the Blazers are a really bad 12 seed. Not only does numberFire's nERD-based power rankings have them ranked as the worst 12 seed in the tourney, but they also have UAB ranked lower than all but one of the 13 seeds.

The No. 5 seed San Diego State Aztecs were given a solid draw in the Round of 64, and I think they'll manage to cover the spread this Friday.

Ranking ninth in adjusted defense, we know the Aztecs are capable of keeping up their end of the bargain on defense.

The one place where SDSU struggles, defensively speaking, is behind the arc. They rank 285th in three-point rate allowed. But luckily for Aztec fans, the Blazers are one of the least successful three-point shooting teams in college basketball. They come in 310th in three-point rate while just one player on their team shoots the three-ball above a 34.9% clip.

It's hard to imagine a poor three-point team finding success against SDSU's rock-solid defense. It doesn't help that UAB is known for their defensive shortcomings.

UAB's 202nd adjusted defense pales in comparison to most teams in this tournament. They are very vulnerable on the boards, ranking 276th in offensive rebound rate allowed to opponents. The Blazers also force turnovers at a low rate (247th), so it seems SDSU could have its way when it comes to securing second-chance points.

Bart Torvik has SDSU's win chance at 79.0%, while every other relevant model gives the Aztecs at least a 75.0% chance at advancing.

If UAB was a legitimate three-point shooting team, perhaps I could be talked out of laying the points here. But they're not, so I'll be backing the Aztecs this Friday.

UAB vs. San Diego State Prop Bet

Jaedon LeDee Over 8.5 Rebounds (+110)

Remember when we touched on all those offensive boards that UAB surrenders?

Jaedon LeDee can grab those.

LeDee leads the way for San Diego State, averaging 21.2 points and 8.4 rebounds per game.

He has recorded over 8.5 rebounds in 50.0% of games where he played more than 25 minutes, so these +110 odds immediately caught my eye.

Baked into LeDee's 8.4 rebound average are 3.3 offensive boards per game, good for the 28th-most in the country.

If SDSU wants to come out on top and cover the spread, they need to take advantage of UAB's 274th rank in defensive rebound percentage. LeDee will be the key to securing those boards and putting the ball back on the glass.

It doesn't hurt that UAB ranks 310th in three-point rate. The less three-point shooting, the more interior shooting, which means LeDee could be in a great rebounding position throughout this one.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.