NBA Betting Picks, Player Props, and DFS Plays for Monday 1/1/24

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today? And who should we build around in daily fantasy?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Best Bets

Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks

Under 260.0 (-112)

On the year, the Indiana Pacers games have gone over at a 71.9% clip with the Milwaukee Bucks' games doing so at a 65.6% rate.

It's not a huge surprise, then, that this is a pretty historic over/under at 260.0.

But with that said, the under looks appealing.

And that's not to say that scoring won't be there, of course.

numberFire's model likes this game to rack up 246.6 points.

My model -- which accounts for injuries and reduces the impact of garbage time -- expects 253.9 points.

Their three prior meetings this year have averaged 254.3 points with totals of 250, 247, and 266.

Detroit Pistons at Houston Rockets

Houston -9.5 (-110)

The Detroit Pistons finally snapped their historic losing streak with a 129-127 win over the Toronto Raptors on Saturday, and the Houston Rockets are on a three-game losing streak of their own -- all three coming at home.

However, those games were against the Indiana Pacers, Phoenix Suns, and Philadelphia 76ers and were losses of 6, 16, and 4 points.

Running each team's current rotation through my model, it heavily views the Rockets here.

Houston's relevant net rating for this matchup (based on their current health) is a nice +3.5 once removing garbage possessions, via PBPStats.

Detroit's is -10.8.

NBA Prop Bets

Luka Doncic Over 3.5 Made Threes (-132)

Luka Doncic Over 52.5 Points, Rebounds, Assists (-118)

I always like to look at three-point props when digging into a slate, and Luka Doncic has a favorable matchup against the Utah Jazz, who allow 37.1 three-point attempts per game, a top-six rate on the season.

In 12 games against teams letting up a top-10 number of three-point attempts this season, Doncic has averaged 4.4 makes on 10.5 attempts. Three-point volume should be there for Luka tonight.

Doncic also has taken advantage of bottom-10 overall defenses to the tune of 55.2 combined points, rebounds, and assists.

Malik Beasley Under 2.5 Made Threes (+128)

Sticking with the three-point trends and looking at the under for the Pacers/Bucks matchup, Malik Beasley has plus-money odds to stay under his made three prop.

Beasley has averaged 3.0 makes per game on the season, but for as many points as we've seen in Pacers games, they actually are allowing a league-low three point attempt per game rate.

Beasley has averaged 1.7 makes on 4.7 attempts in three games against the Pacers this year. That's down from 3.0 makes on 6.5 attempts outside that sample.

Volume matters for three-point props, and this looks like a situation we can target.

NBA Daily Fantasy Targets

Guards

Luka Doncic ($12,600) - Unsurprisingly, Doncic is on my radar given the promising matchup. numberFire's model projects him for 58.0 FanDuel points, second on the slate behind only Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,600). That puts him in a great tier among guard options, and my simulation model gives him a 43.1% chance to post the top FanDuel night among guards.

Bradley Beal ($6,300) - Beal has returned from injury to play 29 and 34 minutes while getting up 8 and 13 shots over his past two games. Of course, the usage rate (24.0%) will never skyrocket within this offense, but he's averaged 0.93 FanDuel points per minute this season with the Phoenix Suns across eight games.

Others to Consider: Tyrese Haliburton ($11,000), Damian Lillard ($9,100), Fred VanVleet ($8,300), Andrew Nembhard ($5,300), Scoot Henderson ($6,300), Jalen Green ($6,700)

Forwards

Khris Middleton ($7,300) - While the under is appealing for the Pacers/Bucks, the total is still sky high, and that matters. Middleton projects well for tonight's game, and numberFire's model expects him to rack up 34.2 FanDuel points on a line of 17.3 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 6.0 assists across 32.0 minutes.

Isaac Okoro ($4,700) - The Cleveland Cavaliers' injury list is pretty long, and that should lead to a bigger role for Okoro tonight against the Toronto Raptors. Okoro is projected for 30.9 minutes tonight, per numberFire, against a Raptors team that ranks around the league average in defensive rating. His low salary can help us access the big stars tonight. In nine games with at least 30 minutes this season, Okoro has averaged 27.1 FanDuel points.

Others to Consider: Kevin Durant ($10,100), Scottie Barnes ($9,700), Lauri Markkanen ($8,500), Jerami Grant ($7,500), Bojan Bogdanovic ($6,500), Jae'Sean Tate ($4,100)

Bigs

Nikola Jokic ($12,100) - Yes, Antetokounmpo is a phenomenal play in his own right, but with the 260.0-point total in that game, he could draw a lot of attention. That could leave Jokic a little overlooked among the bigs. Jokic faces a Charlotte Hornets team that is 30th in defensive rating and is getting decimated by anyone and everyone. In nine games against bottom-10 defenses, Jokic has averaged 53.9 FanDuel points and 1.71 per minute.

Others to Consider: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,600), Alperen Sengun ($8,900), Aaron Gordon ($5,900), Nick Richards ($6,000), Jalen Smith ($4,900)

Looking for the latest NBA odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NBA betting options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.