NBA Betting Picks for Wednesday 3/13/24: Denver Looks to Stay Hot in Miami

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Best Bets

Denver Nuggets at Miami Heat

Nuggets -3.5 (-112)

The Denver Nuggets, who are 9-1 and 7-3 against the spread (ATS) over their last 10 games, gets a favorable matchup against the Miami Heat. The injury report is lengthy for Miami, who is expected to be without Tyler Herro and Kevin Love.

The Heat are on a three-game losing streak while totaling a measly 105.3 points per game (PPG). Denver has the defense to keep this cold streak alive with the 10th-best defensive rating in the league.

Miami has the 11th-worst field goal percentage (FG%) and 13th-worst effective field goal percentage (eFG%). The Nuggets have the sixth-best mark in opponent eFG% and the eighth-best mark in opponent FG%.

Denver could key in on the Heat's top two scorers Jimmy Butler (21.7 PPG) and Bam Adebayo (19.9 PPG). The Nuggets will likely have Nikola Jokic (112.9 defensive rating) and Aaron Gordon (113.6 defensive rating) drawing the defensive assignments, and both players have solid ratings to frustrate Miami's leading scorer.

On the other side court, Denver totals the 6th-most points in the paint per game while the Heat have the 11th-worst mark in opponent two-point percentage. Extra possessions could also give the Nuggets a leg up, for they have the seventh-best offensive rebounding percentage. Miami is much further down the totem pole with the sixth-worst offensive rebounding percentage.

Considering the Heat's injuries and Denver's recent tear, I'm taking the Nuggets to cover on the road.

Charlotte Hornets at Memphis Grizzlies

Over 202.5 (-110)

The Charlotte Hornets and Memphis Grizzlies have the worst defensive ratings in the league, resulting in an extremely low total at 202.5. Despite each offense having clear weaknesses, I like the over for tonight's clash.

I have a hard time getting past the 202.5 total. This is pretty much an unheard of number at the professional level. numberFire's daily game projections have a five-out-of-five star confidence level for the over.

Charlotte has the fourth-worst defensive rating, giving the Grizzlies a solid chance of scoring. Memphis recorded 66 points in the paint in their previous contest, and the Hornets give up the eighth-most points in the paint paired with the second-worst mark in opponent two-point percentage.

While the Grizz have the 11th-best defensive rating, this unit is not invincible by any stretch. Memphis gives up the 11th-most three-point shots and has the 6th-worst mark in opponent three-point percentage. This plays right into the Hornets' hands.

Charlotte takes the 17th-most three-point shots, which is one of their best stats on offense. Plus, they've increased the volume over the last three contests with 37.3 attempts per game, compared to their season average of 33.5.

It won't take much for the over due to the low total. The Hornets should get plenty of three-point looks, and Memphis could feast around the rim. Give me the over.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.