NBA Betting Picks for Friday 3/29/24: Will the Wizards Cover as Favorites?

Riley Thomas•_riley8

1mo

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Best Bets

Los Angeles Clippers at Orlando Magic

Magic Moneyline (+100)

The Los Angeles Clippers against the Orlando Magic is pretty much a pick'em at FanDuel Sportsbook with the Clips favored by 1.5 points. The public is on L.A. as 77% of spread bets are backing the Clippers. I'm going in a different direction with my pick, though.

Before digging into the stats, it's important to mention that both teams are healthy for this game. That's quite refreshing for the NBA at this time of the year. The only injury to really watch is Markelle Fultz's questionable status (knee). Fultz played in limited minutes throughout the season at 21.4 per game. Plus, he's added only 3.6 points per game (PPG) over the previous five games. This injury should hold very little weight, if any at all.

Now, let's get into the matchup.

Massey Ratings is predicting a 109-108 score in favor of the Magic, and numberFire's game projections are siding with the Orlando moneyline and spread. I'm in line with the models and am taking the Magic moneyline at +100.

Los Angeles has simply been horrible against the spread (ATS) in recent games, going 2-8 ATS over the last 10. Of course, with a 1.5-point spread, if Orlando covers it likely means an outright win.

Over their last five games, only about 29.9% of the Clippers' points have come from three-point land. For reference, the Denver Nuggets have 29.9% of their points come from three this season (third-lowest mark). This leads me to believe that L.A. has been looking to attack the rim a bit more. With the league's third-best defensive rating, the Magic give up the eighth-fewest points in the paint per game. This has continued to ring true of late, with opponents totaling only 46.4 points in the paint per game over Orlando's past five contests (season average is 47.7).

Additionally, the Clippers are surrendering more points in the paint than usual over the last four. Opponents have totaled 53.5 points in the paint during that span compared to Los Angeles' season average of 49.6. The Magic total the eighth-most points in the paint and the second-most field goal attempts within five feet of the rim.

Considering the Clips' recent struggles to cover and Orlando's potential advantage in the painted area, I love the home underdog to win outright.

Detroit Pistons at Washington Wizards

Wizards -4.0 (-110)

Friday features a clash between the two worst records in the NBA as the Detroit Pistons visit the Washington Wizards. Yay? This isn't exactly the kind of matchup we dream for, but there's some betting value here.

Believe it or not, the 14-59 Wizards are 3-1 ATS over their last four games. Washington's injury report is mostly clean while Detroit could be without Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey. Both players are questionable and are the squad's top two scorers at 22.3 PPG and 15.2 PPG, respectively. If either sits, it's a big deal for Detroit.

When Cunningham and Ivey are off the floor, the Pistons have a dreadful -159 plus/minus. This also includes Bojan Bogdanovic not on the floor as he was traded to the New York Knicks in the first week of February.

Detroit's shooting splits have been bad enough at full strength this season at 53.1% on two-pointers (10th-worst) and 34.9% from three (4th-worst). Prepare yourself -- it gets even worse without Cunningham and Ivey. The Pistons shoot only 49.1% on twos and 33.4% on threes without their top two scorers.

Washington has managed to hold three of their last four opponents to under 110 points. Detroit's interior defense has been terrible over their last five games as opponents are logging 58.4 points in the paint per game. This looks like an obvious advantage for the Wizards, who total the third-most points in the paint per contest.

Philadelphia 76ers at Cleveland Cavaliers

76ers +8.0 (-110)

The vast majority of spread tickets for the Philadelphia 76ers vs. the Cleveland Cavaliers are coming in on the Sixers (82%). The recent trends provide some ample support for taking Philly's side; the 76ers are 3-1 ATS over the last four while the Cavaliers are 1-4 ATS over their past five.

Philadelphia has been dangerous from three-point land in the last three games, shooting 40.4% from deep. Cleveland has slipped at defending the three, with opponents making 39.5% of their shots from deep over the previous five. The scoring potential is there for the 76ers against one of the league's best defenses. Tyrese Maxey could be poised for success after draining 11 of his last 20 three-point shots (55.0%). Maxey is -120 to make 3+ three-pointers tonight.

The Cavs have heavily leaned on shooting threes in their last two games, taking 42.5 treys per game (season average is 37.3). Over 47.0% of Cleveland's points have come from three-pointers over the past two contests. This isn't ideal for the Cavs heading into this one as the Sixers give up the sixth-fewest three-point makes and eighth-fewest three-point attempts per game.

Donovan Mitchell could return from injury after missing the last six games. He is participating in shootaround today. Of course, if Mitchell goes, that may have an impact on this Philly recommendation.

Regardless, if this number stays this high, I like the 76ers to cover on the road. Cleveland has struggled ATS and has not defended the three-ball well in recent outings.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.