NBA Betting Picks and Player Props for Sunday 3/3/24

Brandon Gdula
Brandon Gdula@gdula13
NBA Betting Picks and Player Props for Sunday 3/3/24

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily NBA projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today? And who should we build around in daily fantasy?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Best Bets

New York Knicks at Cleveland Cavaliers

Over 212.5 (-110)

Cavaliers Moneyline (-250)

The New York Knicks travel to face the Cleveland Cavaliers for an ESPN matchup at 7:00 p.m. Eastern. In both matchups so far, the road team has won, but that's not a trend that looks like it'll continue tonight.

Donovan Mitchell is questionable for Cleveland, but the Knicks are without some key names, too. Julius Randle, OG Anunoby, and Mitchell Robinson remain out. In games without them (but with Jalen Brunson), the Knicks are just 6-6 and 4-8 against the spread.

The Knicks dropped two straight games to end a four-game home stand and are now 35-25 on the year but only 15-14 on the road.

Cleveland is a strong 20-10 at home and 39-20 overall and settle in for a two-game stint at home before they play the Boston Celtics on Tuesday.

While my model and numberFire's favor the Cavaliers, the moneyline and spread are trending in that direction since open.

Therefore, the over is the main priority. numberFire's projections anticipate 215.0 points in this matchup. My model projects 216.2 points.

Oklahoma City Thunder at Phoenix Suns

Over 233.5 (-110)

Oklahoma City -5.5 (-110)

The Phoenix Suns are on a home back-to-back for this matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder, who are currently the 2 seed in the Western Conference.

Phoenix lost 118-109 to the Houston Rockets last night, and Devin Booker sprained his ankle.

OKC won the first matchup in the series back in November by a score of 111-99 in Phoenix (which Booker also missed). They'll conclude the season series at the end of the month in Oklahoma City.

The low point total in the first matchup hasn't led to a decreased over/under for tonight's matchup.

My model thinks this game scores 241.1 points.

Re-adjusting the matchup for Booker's injury shows value on the Thunder as road favorites, so be sure to monitor the injury status today.

NBA Prop Bets

Stephen Curry Over 5.5 Made Threes (+118)

In a marquee game this afternoon at 3:30 p.m. Eastern on ABC, we'll see Stephen Curry travel to play the Boston Celtics. While we don't have any of the top three teams in action by three point attempts per game allowed, we do get the team letting up the fourth-most attempts with Boston surrendering 37.6 attempts per game.

In nine games against teams allowing a top-five rate of three pointers per game, Curry has averaged a whopping 12.7 attempts and 5.9 makes. Curry's three-point numbers drop to 4.8 makes on 11.8 attempts against all teams in the top-20 in three-point defense by volume.

In their first meeting, Curry went 6 for 11 from beyond the arc in a game that did reach overtime.

While it's a big number, there are plus odds attached to it, and he should get his shot volume up today.

You can also target Curry to make 5+ threes at -190 odds.

Derrick White 3+ Made Threes (-115)

On the flip side of that game, the Golden State Warriors also surrender a lot of three-point attempts: 36.8 per game.

The Celtics generate a league-high 42.3 three-pointers per game already, so you can see where I'm going here.

In that matchup (again, which did head to overtime), the Celtics attempted 58 three-pointers, which is the third-most of any team game this season.

Derrick White has averaged 3.5 made threes on 8.3 attempts in eight matchups against teams in the bottom six in three-point volume defense.

numberFire's model projects him for 2.5 today, and the shot volume should be there for Boston.

Tyrese Haliburton Over 2.5 Made Threes (-130)

We don't get a great opponent-induced volume angle for Tyrese Haliburton against the San Antonio Spurs, who are an average three-point defense by volume allowed.

However, Haliburton is being projected for 3.2 made threes today via numberFire's model. That helps explain the -130 odds on the over at 2.5 makes.

Even against teams 11th to 20th in three-point frequency allowed (i.e. comparable defenses to the Spurs'), Haliburton has averaged 3.2 makes on 8.2 attempts in a 21-game sample.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.