NASCAR Xfinity Series Win Simulations: ToyotaCare 250

Jim Sannes
Jim Sannes@JimSannes
NASCAR Xfinity Series Win Simulations: ToyotaCare 250

Fool me once? Shame on you.

Fool me twice? Shame on me.

Fool me thrice? I don't think there's a saying for that one. And I hope we don't find out.

Saturday's NASCAR Xfinity Series race in Richmond will be the third that Aric Almirola has run with Joe Gibbs Racing. Each of the first two times, he was a good betting value by my model.

He rewarded my faith with finishes of 12th and 31st. Lovely!

But, my brothers and sisters, here we are again. Saturday's field for the ToyotaCare 250 has zero current full-time Cup Series drivers, meaning it's Almirola surrounded by -- for the most part -- less experienced peers.

As a result, he's the favorite by my model prior to practice and qualifying. Here's the full run of sims, headed by our chief tormentor himself.

Win Sims
Top 5
Aric Almirola15.3%40.2%57.1%
Cole Custer14.2%36.2%52.4%
Chandler Smith12.8%32.2%47.1%
Justin Allgaier8.7%26.4%41.0%
Austin Hill7.1%22.0%36.3%
Riley Herbst5.5%17.8%30.6%
Sheldon Creed4.4%14.7%25.9%
View Full Table

Betting markets definitely aren't low on Almirola. He's +650 to win in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR Xfinity Series betting odds, the fourth-shortest odds in the field. But even that is a slim value.

The implied odds at +650 are 13.3%, down from 15.3% by my numbers. I'd like a bit more wiggle room, ideally, but I do think Almirola is worth a look even if +650 is pretty short.

The intro was a bit tongue-in-cheek about his start. He was running really well in Phoenix -- a sister track of Richmond -- before he got caught up in a crash not of his own doing. He was top-four in both stages and ran top-five all day before a poor pit stop put him in the hornet's nest at the time of the crash.

That run wasn't a surprise, given that Almirola's best track type in Cup was the short, flat tracks. He does have stiff competition here, both in his former teammate, Cole Custer, and his current one, Chandler Smith. It's not an easy field even with the lack of Cup drivers. But I do think Almirola deserves our faith one more time.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.