NASCAR

NASCAR Xfinity Series Win Simulations: Focused Health 250

Jim Sannes
Jim Sannes@JimSannes
NASCAR Xfinity Series Win Simulations: Focused Health 250

Kyle Larson. AJ Allmendinger. Ty Gibbs. Shane Van Gisbergen.

Whew, buddy. This week's Xfinity Series field is loaded.

You want a win at COTA? You're gonna have to beat the best to earn it.

Further complicating things is that two of those four drivers -- Larson and Gibbs -- aren't competing full-time in the Xfinity Series. Therefore, they can fully race for the win rather than fretting about stage points.

That dynamic isn't as drastic in Xfinity as it is in Cup because you don't need as many pit stops to complete the race, but it's still a factor that could complicate things at least a bit.

Here's a look at how my model sees things playing out prior to practice and qualifying.

Driver
Sim Win
Sim Podium
Sim Top 5
Kyle Larson16.1%49.7%70.2%
A.J. Allmendinger14.3%44.4%65.6%
Ty Gibbs14.2%43.2%63.8%
Shane Van Gisbergen9.8%27.3%46.1%
Justin Allgaier7.5%21.3%35.1%
Sam Mayer5.8%15.1%26.3%
Cole Custer4.6%14.0%25.3%
View Full Table

If you look at FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR Xfinity Series betting odds, you'll see my sims are above market on Justin Allgaier (+1800) and Austin Hill (+2500). I'm not willing to trust that, given how many studs they'd have to top for that to pay off. I'd need a bit more wiggle room between the model and their implied odds to bite.

The one driver I'm willing to take that risk with is Jesse Love. This will be Love's first road-course race in NASCAR's upper three series, but he's already flashing his absurd talent. He has won two poles in the first four races, and he finished runner-up in Phoenix.

Love won at Watkins Glen in ARCA last year and finished top-five in all four road-course races he ran in that series the past two years. It's not as dominant as he was on other tracks, but he still showed skill.

This is really just a bet on the unknown. We don't know how good Love can be on road courses, but that works into his favor, too. It's possible he'll be just as good here as he has been on other tracks. If that winds up being the case, I do think +4000 on Love to win is worth considering.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.