NASCAR Xfinity Series Win Simulations: Call Every Dig. Every Time. 200

Jim Sannes
Jim Sannes@JimSannes
NASCAR Xfinity Series Win Simulations: Call Every Dig. Every Time. 200

Pardon me while I apply this clown makeup. It's a necessity before we proceed further.

Last week, I mentioned that my simulations were high on Aric Almirola for the Xfinity Series race in Las Vegas. He's an experienced Cup driver running for a fast team, so I had high expectations.

He promptly qualified 10th, scored 0 stage points, and finished 12th. Mid.

You'd think that'd lower me on Almirola entering this week as he's once again entered in a Joe Gibbs Racing car for Phoenix. That thought would be furthered by the fact that this race features last week's winner, John Hunter Nemechek, and Cup Series stud William Byron in a Hendrick car. It's a really good field.

You'd think wrong.

Thus, clown paint.

Here's the full run of sims before practice for Saturday's Xfinity Series race in Phoenix.

Win Sims
Top 5
William Byron28.2%58.4%72.8%
Aric Almirola18.4%46.6%65.0%
John Hunter Nemechek12.2%35.7%53.8%
Cole Custer10.7%33.9%51.1%
Chandler Smith7.6%26.3%44.2%
Sammy Smith4.0%15.0%29.1%
Justin Allgaier3.7%15.2%30.2%
View Full Table

Yeah, 18.4% is high on Almirola. It looks even bigger when you compare it to the betting market.

Almirola is +900 to win in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR Xfinity Series betting odds, 10.0% implied. But FanDuel is actually higher on Almirola than other sportsbooks are.

So not only am I well above FanDuel, but I'm even further beyond some other spots. With how things went last week, that's not a great feeling.

Let's explain why the model has so much enthusiasm for Almirola, though. He's an experienced Cup driver in a great car, and short, flat tracks were his bread and butter in the upper series. He finished runner-up in the playoff race at Martinsville, his second-to-last race as a full-time driver, and he won at New Hampshire in 2021.

When you combine that skill with his equipment, the model's gonna slobber. And, frankly, I get it.

As a result, even though I want to preach caution with the model's assessment of Almirola, I do still think the market is too low on him. He has too much in his favor -- even in a tough field -- to be as poorly rated as he is at some spots.

Which drivers stand out to you Saturday in Phoenix? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR Xfinity Series betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.