NASCAR

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Picks: SciAps 200

Jim Sannes
Jim Sannes@JimSannes
NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Picks: SciAps 200

This was one of the weeks where you could hear a groan when the NASCAR Xfinity Series entry list came out.

That's because you knew Christopher Bell was swooping in to ruin the fun.

Bell's always a threat coming down from the Cup Series. But he just had to do it at New Hampshire, arguably his best track.

Bell has run nine races at the track across NASCAR's top three series. He has won five of those -- including all three in Xfinity -- and finished runner-up in two others.

He's a demon.

That's why Bell is -110 to win in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR Xfinity Series betting odds. He's getting the full Kyle-Busch-in-a-truck treatment, and you can understand why.

My model just can't get there right now. With only 200 laps scheduled, the margin for error is minimal, both during qualifying and during the race.

Thus, it's important to keep in mind that Bell is lurking, and any outrights we like will have to overcome him to win. But here's what my model has prior to practice and qualifying.

Driver
Win
Podium
Top 5
Christopher Bell34.9%68.5%79.4%
Alex Bowman10.7%33.3%52.0%
Chandler Smith9.2%30.8%48.4%
Cole Custer8.5%28.8%46.9%
Justin Allgaier6.1%20.5%36.0%
Sam Mayer5.0%17.4%31.2%
Sheldon Creed4.7%15.7%28.8%
View Full Table

Even sitting at 34.9% is massive for Bell. If I run the sims pretending practice and qualifying had already taken place with Bell on the pole -- and no key competitors showing flashy speed -- he'd shoot up to 52.2%. But with plenty still left to be decided, Bell's not a value at his current number.

The problem is that he sucks up tons of win equity in the sims, too, so finding values elsewhere is tough. Alex Bowman is slightly undervalued at +900 (10.7% for me versus 10.0% implied), but with rain the forecast, there's a decent shot that Bowman starts in the back. Thus, I'd want to see them get qualifying times posted before backing Bowman.

To find the next driver on whom I'm above market, you have to jump all the way down to +8000. That's Brandon Jones.

Jones is similar to Bowman: he's in trouble if qualifying gets rained out. So, once again, it may be better to hold off on betting him if you are so inclined.

But Jones is a value simply because he's due for positive regression. He has failed to finish three straight races and six of the past 10. A lot of those haven't been his fault; he's just had bad luck.

When things go his way, though, Jones has shown upside on tracks like this. He won Martinsville and was runner-up in Phoenix in 2022, and he had three top-eight average running positions on short, flat tracks last year, his first season with JR Motorsports. Jones also had a win in Phoenix back in 2020, meaning two of his five career wins have come at spots with similarities to New Hampshire.

The model doesn't necessarily adore Jones; he's at just 2.2% to win. But that's still well above his 1.2% implied odds at +8000. Again, the concerns around qualifying being rained out are real, but if I had to place one bet before having that information, it'd be on Jones.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.