NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Picks: Crown Royal Purple Bag Project 200

Jim Sannes
Jim Sannes@JimSannes
NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Picks: Crown Royal Purple Bag Project 200

A track like Darlington tends to bring out the big guns, and we've got that for Saturday's Xfinity Series Crown Royal Purple Bag Project 200.

In addition to all the Xfinity regulars, we've got William Byron, Aric Almirola, and John Hunter Nemechek in the field, guys who have combined to win 19 Xfinity and Cup Series races since the start of last year. If you want to win, you gotta beat the best.

That's reflected in the betting markets. Justin Allgaier is the only Xfinity regular shorter than +600 in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR Xfinity Series betting odds, and only three regulars are shorter than +1000. Win equity is tough to come by.

I still think one of those regulars is a quality value to claim the checkered flag. Here's what my simulations have for the field prior to practice and qualifying.

Top 5
William Byron20.9%47.4%63.2%
Cole Custer8.4%28.4%46.0%
Justin Allgaier8.3%26.8%43.4%
Austin Hill6.9%22.4%37.6%
Riley Herbst6.2%21.5%36.2%
Aric Almirola6.1%17.9%31.5%
Chandler Smith6.0%18.7%31.3%
View Full Table

Although Byron is high here, he's still below his 26.3% implied odds at +280 at FanDuel. Same thing for Allgaier (+600) and Cole Custer (+800).

But Riley Herbst at +2000? I can get behind that.

In eight career Darlington races, Herbst has crashed out three times. Obviously, that's not ideal, and it's an issue Herbst has had elsewhere, too.

But in the other five races, Herbst has finished sixth or better three times, including during his age-21 season in 2020. That's a tall task for a young driver, but Herbst has shown he has upside when he keeps his nose clean.

Herbst won Las Vegas toward the end of last year and was runner-up in Homestead. Homestead -- like Darlington -- features tons of tire falloff. That's why, even in a tough field, I think Herbst is worth a look at +2000. The model has him at 6.2%, up from 4.8% implied.

The only other guy at least half a percentage point above his implied odds is a massive longshot: Parker Retzlaff (+30000).

I was on Retzlaff at Dover, as well, and he certainly wasn't bad there. He turned his 13th-place average running position into a 10th-place finish. But leaping from 10th to 1st in this field is tough.

Retzlaff has never finished top-five on a non-drafting track, so you'd need some chaos. And I'd prefer Retzlaff in a more forgiving market (I'd have his fair odds for a top five at around +1500). But I don't think the model is totally off base in thinking he's undervalued.

New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You’ll receive $150 in Bonus Bets if you win your first bet of at least $5! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Which drivers stand out to you on Saturday? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NASCAR Xfinity Series betting odds to see the full menu of options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.