NASCAR

NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series Win Simulations: Victoria's Voice Foundation 200

Jim Sannes
Jim Sannes@JimSannes
NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series Win Simulations: Victoria's Voice Foundation 200

Last week, I dared to bet against Kyle Busch in the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series, thinking his +250 win odds were too short.

He reminded me of why that's a fool's errand, notching yet another win, this time in a Spire truck.

What's that old definition of insanity? Because it looks like we're doing it again.

Busch is entered for this weekend's Victoria's Voice Foundation 200 in Las Vegas, his home track. And now that it's no longer a drafting track, Busch is -110 to win in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series betting odds.

This time, though, he has stiffer competition with Christopher Bell also in the field. My pre-practice simulations think Bell is a worthy adversary here.

Driver
Sim Win
Sim Podium
Sim Top 5
Kyle Busch32.2%67.5%77.3%
Christopher Bell30.5%65.1%76.1%
Corey Heim11.6%40.1%60.2%
Christian Eckes4.9%21.5%40.9%
Zane Smith4.4%18.2%35.5%
Nick Sanchez3.9%14.9%30.8%
Ty Majeski2.7%13.0%27.8%
View Full Table

If Bell weren't in the field, my model would have Busch's win odds at 43.9%. Those are closer to what you'd expect, given his track record. But the addition of Bell changes things quite a bit.

Bell doesn't have nearly the same prolific track record in Trucks as Busch. He has run just three races since he left the series as a full-time regular, and he's 0-for-3 in claiming victories. Last year, his finishes were 16th and 4th.

But those came with Hattori Racing, which is no longer a full-time Truck Series team. This year, Bell is driving for TRICON, Toyota's top team in the series. It's a better truck than what he has had in the past and likely -- at worst -- rivals that of Busch.

My model is way above market on Bell. He's +600 to win at FanDuel (14.3%); I'm more than double that at 30.5%. Typically, when you're that far off market, you're the one who's wrong. But I do think, directionally, that Bell is undervalued while Busch is overvalued with both in the field.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.