NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series Betting Picks: Heart of America 200

Jim Sannes
Jim Sannes@JimSannes
NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series Betting Picks: Heart of America 200

If I could bet Corey Heim to finish second in Saturday's Heart of America 200, I'd do it.

The main reason? I bet Heim to win earlier in the week, and he loves nothing more than finishing second when I bet him outright.

In nine races on either 1.5-mile tracks or Darlington since the start of last year, Heim has three runner-ups and two other third-place finishes. He was fourth in two others, as well.

That speed is great! But it doesn't cash my outright tickets. And I'm on him again this week.

Here are what my win simulations have for this week's Truck race in Kansas prior to practice and qualifying.

Top 5
Corey Heim25.9%50.7%63.8%
Christian Eckes17.5%40.9%56.2%
Ty Majeski10.1%30.8%47.0%
Zane Smith10.0%30.3%47.7%
Grant Enfinger6.0%19.3%32.7%
Nick Sanchez5.8%20.0%34.8%
Taylor Gray5.2%18.8%32.6%
View Full Table

The best news for Heim is that Kyle Busch is nowhere to be found in that table. He was the lone driver to best Heim in Texas, though Heim nearly ran him down for the win. Ejecting Busch from the entry list opens a ton of win equity.

Heim's 25.9% win odds in the model are above his 22.2% implied odds at +350 in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series betting odds. Ideally, you'd want Heim at +375 for a bit more cushion, but +350 is still a value.

You could potentially wait on Heim and see where he re-opens after practice and qualifying. He has qualified outside the top 10 in five of seven races so far, including both races at 1.5-mile tracks. But if you won't be around during tomorrow afternoon to monitor the markets, I think +350 is long enough to justify consideration.

Congrats in advance to Heim on yet another second-place finish.

Two other drivers are also showing value prior to practice and qualifying: Grant Enfinger (+2500) and Ben Rhodes (+3500).

I expected Enfinger to struggle this year as he transitioned to CR7 from GMS Racing. But he has had a top-10 average running position in both races on 1.5-mile tracks this year, so there's at least decent speed there. He won this race last year, and while I'm still wary, his implied odds here are just 3.8%.

As for Rhodes, his speed this year has been poor. His average running positions in the two races on 1.5-mile tracks have been 12th and 17th. Thorsport Racing, in general, has been off with no finishes better than seventh at either Vegas or Texas. Thus, I'm likely ignoring the value on Rhodes, instead gravitating toward Heim or Enfinger if I want pre-practice outrights.

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Which driver stands out to you on Saturday night? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.