NASCAR Betting Picks: USA TODAY 301

Jim Sannes
Jim Sannes@JimSannes
NASCAR Betting Picks: USA TODAY 301

Over the past month or so, it has become clear that parity is on the rise in the NASCAR Cup Series.

The season started with Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing dominating, winning 10 of the first 12 races (including all eight on non-drafting ovals). It was clear everybody else was in catch-up mode.

But recently, Fords have come surging back. They've combined to win three of the past five, and they've had a bunch of close-calls in that stretch, as well. Instead of having a handful of cars in contention, we're sniffing double-digits.

That is reflected in my betting model for this week. A whopping eight drivers have win odds between 9.8% and 7.0% before things finally start to fall off. There are drivers we can favor due to their track history, but the pool of drivers who can win is pretty big.

When looking at FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds for New Hampshire, it's the bottom end of that tier that pops most. We get somewhat similar upside without having to pay an outright price as short as +450.

Let's dig into who that driver is now and then outline other spots where I see value prior to practice and qualifying.

New Hampshire Betting Picks

Chase Elliott to Win (+1400)

(UPDATE: Elliott has since shortened to +750. With qualifying and practice rained out, Elliott will start on pole, which has led to the shortening. He hasn't budged in my model, though, so he is no longer a value as things stand.)

Chase Elliott enters New Hampshire as the Cup Series points leader more so due to consistency than upside. He has just one win, and his 137 laps led rank just 11th in the series right now.

That upside has been higher on tracks like this, though, allowing me to back Elliott at the bottom end of that upper tier.

Of Elliott's seven top-five finishes, three have come at short, flat tracks. He has had a top-10 average running position at all five races in this bucket (if you include Gateway), and he finished third last week in Iowa. Even though he won on a 1.5-mile track, Elliott has been most consistently in the hunt at the short, flat tracks.

Elliott's history in New Hampshire is solid. Before a poor showing last year, he was runner-up in 2022, and he led 53 laps in 2021. Last year's disappointing showing was part of a down-tick for Hendrick at this track type, something they've seemingly corrected this year.

Elliott is near the bottom of that top tier of drivers for me. I've got him at 7.9% to win, ranking seventh among all drivers. But with his implied odds at just 6.7%, I think the gap between Elliott and the top six is a bit overstated by the market.

Bubba Wallace to Finish Top 5 (+550); Wallace to Finish Top 10 (+170)

(UPDATE: Wallace has since shortened to +500 and +145, respectively. He's still a considerable value for me in both markets, so if Wallace wasn't already on your card, he's definitely a viable add.)

Bubba Wallace started his turnaround in form on short, flat tracks at New Hampshire back in 2022. He has continued that progression since, and I think we should be high on him as he returns to the track.

In that 2022 race, Wallace had a sixth-place average running position and finished third. It was his first career top-five at a track shorter than 2.5 miles, so this was a big deviation in form.

Since then, he has proven that was no fluke. Wallace has had a top-eight average running position in four of the past eight races on short, flat tracks, converting one of those into a fourth-place finish in Martinsville this year. Beyond Martinsville, the finishes haven't always been there, but Wallace seems to be in line for positive regression.

As a result, I'm well above market on Wallace both to finish top 5 and top 10. Thus, I'd want to take my typical bet size and divide it, putting the majority on Wallace to finish top 10 with the rest on him to finish top 5, giving me upside should Wallace have another spike run here. I also do show value on Wallace to win at +4000 if you're feeling extra frisky.

Daniel Suarez to Finish Top 10 (+500)

(UPDATE: Suarez has since shortened to +300 to finish top 10. He hasn't budged in my model, but even there at 29.5%, he is still above his new implied odds of 25.0%. Thus, Suarez -- like Wallace -- is still a fine add at current odds.)

Daniel Suarez is coming off a great run last week in Iowa when he ran up front the entire day and finished ninth. I think he can do that again this weekend.

New Hampshire was a great track for Suarez back in the day. He had a pair of top-10s here as a rookie in 2017. Granted, he was in great equipment with Joe Gibbs Racing, but it was his age-25 season. He showed it wasn't all due to the JGR equipment when he finished ninth here with Trackhouse Racing in 2022.

Like Wallace, Suarez has had some poor finishing luck on short, flat tracks. Only two of his four top-10 average running positions on short, flat tracks in the Next-Gen era have resulted in top-10 finishes. That could be something fundamentally amiss, but typically, it hints at a forthcoming upward trend.

My model has Suarez at 29.5% to finish top 10, way above his 16.7% implied odds. Like Wallace, I do show value on Suarez to finish top 5 at +2000, as well, but here, I'm a bit more skeptical of the upside. That's why we'll stick with just the top-10 here for now.

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Which driver stands out to you for New Hampshire? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NASCAR betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.