MLB Win Total Betting: How Many Games Will the Diamondbacks Win in 2024?

Zack Bussiere
Zack Bussiere@ZackBussiere
MLB Win Total Betting: How Many Games Will the Diamondbacks Win in 2024?

The Arizona Diamondbacks are coming off a season in which they drastically exceeded their expectations. Their 84-78 record saw them finish second in the NL West and earn a Wild Card spot, which they took full advantage of, advancing all the way to the World Series.

With their fairytale postseason run now behind them, the question for 2024 is can they repeat it?

After a fantastic offseason that saw them sign pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez and trade for infielder Eugenio Suarez, what is the Arizona Diamondbacks' win total set at for 2024, per the MLB win totals at FanDuel Sportsbook?

The Arizona Diamondbacks' win total is listed at 83.5 with -115 odds on the under.

Let's dig into what we can expect from Arizona this year and which side of the win total should interest you.

All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published. nERD via numberFire. Projections via FanGraphs.

Arizona Diamondbacks Win Total Odds

Arizona Diamondbacks Over/Under 83.5 Wins

  • Over: -105
  • Under: -115

Why Arizona Could Win Over 83.5 Games (-105)

FanGraphs' projections expect Arizona to be better on both sides of the diamond this season. Their 4.73 projected runs per game is tied for 11th and their 4.59 projected runs allowed per game ranks 15th. Combined, that is a projected improvement of 39 runs from 2023, with similar improvement on both sides of the ball.

For a team coming off an impressive run to the World Series, it is an excellent sign that they are projected to improve, not regress, from last season. Led by the electric Corbin Carroll, Arizona’s lineup features difference-makers at several positions. Carroll (4.9), Ketel Marte (3.7), Gabriel Moreno (3.3), Christian Walker (2.6), and Alek Thomas (2.1) all have projected WARs above 2.0.

Their starting rotation also features several difference-makers. With the offseason addition of Eduardo Rodriguez (3.0), Arizona’s starting rotation now features four starters with WARs greater than 2.1, led by Zac Gallen (3.3).

In addition to continued improvement from their roster, Arizona also still has potential in their farm system. Despite graduating Corbin Carroll and Brandon Pfaadt, their farm system still ranks 16th and includes three top-100 prospects. The one most likely to contribute this season is infielder Jordan Lawlar, the 11th overall prospect entering this season.

The Diamondbacks were ahead of schedule with their run to the World Series, but it was far from a fluke. This is a good team that has the potential for further improvement in 2024.

Why Arizona Could Win Under 83.5 Games (-115)

While Arizona is expected to be better on both sides of the ball, that improvement still positions them as a middle-of-the-road team in 2024. The Diamondbacks’ improbable run to the World Series started with an improbable playoff berth. They were one of only two teams that made the postseason last year after finishing with a negative run differential.

Even if Arizona improves as they are projected to, it still leaves them in the middle of the pack overall. This isn’t a team that was on the cusp of greatness that is now projected to make that leap. They were near a .500 ball club last year and will likely hover around that range again in 2024. FanGraphs has them projected for 83 wins. numberFire, with 73 projected wins, is less optimistic.

In another division, the Diamondbacks’ outlook would be much better. In the NL West, that isn’t the case. The division was already projected to be a difficult one before the San Francisco Giants made a splash and signed ace pitcher Blake Snell, keeping him in the NL West after his time as a Padre. As it stands, the NL West has four teams projected to finish with at least 81 wins -- the only division with more is the AL East. The presence of the Colorado Rockies is offset by the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Even with a potentially improved team, the Diamondbacks face a difficult path to repeat their results from last year and win at least 84 games.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.