MLB Betting Picks for Wednesday 5/1/24

Gabriel Santiago
Gabriel Santiago@gps_onthemic

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles, 6:35 p.m. ET

Over 8.5 Runs (-110)

To start Hump Day on a profitable note, I am targeting an AL East clash at Camden Yards. To this point in 2024, the New York Yankees (19-12) and Baltimore Orioles (19-10) are pacing baseball's most competitive division.

The projected starters on Wednesday are righties Luis Gil and Corbin Burnes. Both arms have been respectable in the current campaign, but I still lean toward over 8.5 runs (-110 odds) in this contest.

Burnes looks stronger at this point in the year, showcasing a 3.37 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA). At the same time, he is tagged with a career-high 41.5% Statcast hard-hit rate. For Gil, he's labored on his own accord, posting 6.93 BB/9. On a warm night in Baltimore, issued walks can be cantankerous.

Notably, both lineups here can swing it. Entering Wednesday, the Orioles (.762) and Yanks (.740) are ranked within MLB's top-seven clubs in terms of team OPS. From there, the O's lead all of baseball with 45 home runs, and the Bombers are third with 39 homers.

Oriole Park is not typically regarded as a hitter's venue, but it is rather warm today in Maryland's largest city. That should translate to favorable carry on batted balls. With that, I am looking at sluggers Juan Soto, Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg, Aaron Judge and Alex Verdugo to push this total over.

San Francisco Giants at Boston Red Sox, 7:10 p.m. ET

Red Sox Moneyline (-134)

The San Francisco Giants (14-16) haven't been to Fenway since 2019, and throughout history, it has somewhat served as a house of horrors for them. When playing the Boston Red Sox (17-13) at MLB's oldest active venue, the Giants show a lifetime 2-7 regular season record.

The aforementioned statistic includes yesterday evening when Boston defeated San Francisco by a score of 4-0. Whether from the long flight or time change, the Giants looked sluggish. S.F. has not yet named a starting pitcher for Wednesday while Boston will hand the ball to Kutter Crawford.

Crawford has been nails in 2024, boasting a 3.78 SIERA and 9.18 K/9. He'll take on a Giants team that currently has mediocre marks in striking rate (22.0%) and walk rate (8.3%). In all, San Francisco ranks within the bottom third of MLB in scoring (3.87 runs per game).

Listed at -134 odds, Boston's moneyline is where I'm focusing. According to numberFire, the BoSox have a 66.45% winning likelihood in Game 2 versus San Francisco. With the Red Sox having won three consecutive games, I believe the home side will keep rolling.

Still, the clam chowder debate between these two cities will rage on.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks, 9:40 p.m. ET

Dodgers -1.5 (+106)

Ideally, this contest in the desert won't be delayed by a swarm of bees for the second straight night, but it should be an entertaining clash nonetheless. To put the NL West on display, let's dive into the Los Angeles Dodgers (19-13) at Arizona Diamondbacks (14-17).

Wednesday's probable pitchers are Yoshinobu Yamamoto and southpaw Jordan Montgomery. Yamamoto has made improvements since his first MLB start, as the Japanese hurler is currently tagged with a 2.63 xFIP (along with the shortest odds to win NL Rookie of the Year). Montgomery has also thrived this season, surrendering only three earned runs through 13 innings pitched.

Largely, the Dodgers are baseball's top offensive club right now. They lead the Majors in OPS (.789), wOBA (.348) and runs scored (169). When taking on left-handed pitching, Los Angeles has not wavered much. They sport a .281 batting average in the split, which is higher than their figure versus righties (.266 BA).

With LA having won seven of their past nine games, I believe the Dodgers have value on the run line tonight (+106 odds). Of Los Angeles' 19 wins this season, 14 have come by two or more runs.

I am looking at right-handed mashers Mookie Betts and Will Smith to make the difference at Chase Field. Both have had success against Montgomery throughout their MLB careers. With Mookie (1.101 OPS this season) and Smith (.362 BA) scalding hot right now, I'll take L.A. to win by more than one run on Wednesday.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.