MLB

MLB Betting Picks and Player Props to Target for Sunday 6/23/24

Matthew Lo
Matthew Lo@holla2mlo
MLB Betting Picks and Player Props to Target for Sunday 6/23/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Baltimore Orioles at Houston Astros

Albert Suarez Under 15.5 Outs (-130)

In a tough matchup versus a Houston Astros' offense ranked 12th in wRC+ and wOBA versus right-handed pitching even after Kyle Tucker went down with a shin injury on June 3rd, there could be value found with Albert Suarez's starting role.

While the former KBO pitcher has displayed some positive changes in his first year back in the Majors after producing a 2.35 ERA as a starter, Suarez has been fairly lucky since he was inserted in Baltimore's rotation on May 25th when evaluating his 4.95 xFIP, 5.14 SIERA, and 82.9% left-on base average during this time period.

When analyzing possible regression, his challenging spot against an underrated Houston offense, and a short leash Baltimore has employed with the veteran after he was kept at five innings or lower in 80% of his five starts, there are several solid reasons to believe Suarez will stay under his number or his projection at 4.7 expected innings.

Washington Nationals at Colorado Rockies

Ryan McMahon to Record 2+ Bases (-110)

Heading into Sunday with a hot bat after recording a .294 expected average, ten extra base hits, and a 49% hard hit rate in his last 52 plate appearances, Colorado's slugging third baseman has a great opportunity to prolong his impressive production versus right-hander Jake Irvin.

While Irvin has presented improved form in his second MLB season after recording a 3.70 xFIP through 86.0 innings , McMahon still has an ideal spot to exploit Irvin's main weakness versus left-handed hitters (5.14 xFIP, .354 wOBA, 39.4% hard hit rate) and counter his ability to keep the ball on the ground (43.4%) with a 32.6% fly-ball rate.

In an explosive offensive environment ranked first in ballpark factors for hitters aligned from the left, look for McMahon to cash in against an inexperienced pitcher still allowing a 8.3% barrel rate.

Minnesota Twins at Oakland Athletics

Minnesota Twins Over 4.5 Runs (-115)
Hogan Harris Under 16.5 Outs (-135)

After scoring an eye-popping ten runs against a lefty on Saturday afternoon, the Twins have a similar offensive spot versus journeyman southpaw Hogan Harris.

While Harris has been a little better in a starting role after recording a 1.66 ERA in four appearances, MLB's second ranked offense in wOBA and wRC+ versus lefties has a perfect spot to reach their 5.06 expected run total against an over performing pitcher accounting for a 4.37 SIERA, 5.59 FIP, and an unsustainable 93.8% left on-base percentage in this split.

In correlation with Harris' inevitable dip in production and potential bad outing against Minnesota, we can expect the 27-year old to be removed from today's contest before he is able to record 17 outs especially when examining his projection at 5.0 expected innings.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.