MLB

MLB Betting Picks and Player Props to Target for Sunday 5/12/24

Matthew Lo
Matthew Lo@holla2mlo
MLB Betting Picks and Player Props to Target for Sunday 5/12/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Minnesota Twins at Toronto Blue Jays

Minnesota Twins Moneyline (-126)

Heading into Sunday winning three out of their last four games, the Twins present underrated value as a road favorite with a 4.8% gap between their 60.5% win probability and their 55.7% implied percentage.

On the mound for the Twins, Bailey Ober contributes towards an immediate advantage for Minnesota after he accounted for a solid 3.93 career FIP through four seasons as a starter while Toronto's Alek Manoah is heading in the opposite direction with a horrid 5.84 xFIP in his last 20 starts.

When evaluating several defined edges the Twins have over the Blue Jays including a higher evaluated starter, bullpen (4th versus 27th in xFIP, 14th versus 29th in WAR), and offense (8th versus 17th in wOBA, 9th versus 18th in wRC+), there is every reason to believe Minnesota should get the job done in Toronto as the better overall team.

New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays

Aaron Judge to Record 2+ Bases (-135)

Despite recording consecutive hitless efforts in his last two contests, New York's legendary slugger should easily get on track in Tampa Bay against left-hander Tyler Alexander.

There are several positive data points indicating a rebound effort from Judge is upcoming on Sunday afternoon when analyzing his red-hot form this month including a torrid .328 expected average and a 67% hard hit rate, Judge's historical ability to mash southpaws throughout his career (65% above average in weighted runs created plus, .410 wOBA), and Alexander's drastic splits against right-handed bats (.349 wOBA, 4.80 xFIP, 37.9% hard hit rate).

Expect Judge to rise to the occasion especially versus a low strikeout lefty and a bullpen ranked last in MLB in xFIP (4.86) and Wins Above Replacement (-1.4).

Texas Rangers at Colorado Rockies

Over 10.5 Total Runs (-122)
Corey Seager to Record 2+ Bases (-170)

In a dual between two gas cans, fireworks should be displayed in MLB's top offensive environment in park factor rating.

Taking the hill for the Rangers, journeyman right-handed Jose Urena has always profiled as a pitcher we want to bet against when examining his below-average career metrics as a starter (4.83 xFIP, 15.7% K-rate, 13.6% home run to fly-ball ratio) while on the opposing side, Ty Blach has been just as bad (4.90 xFIP, 12.7% K-rate, 12.6% home run to fly-ball ratio) especially when he is unable to keep the ball on the ground.

With two prime opportunities for offense at Coors Field, our models fully expect the Rangers and Rockies to cash in for us with a projected total standing well over today's mark at 12.8 runs.

In addition to today's game total, there is another chance for us to acquire more equity by zoning in on Corey Seager's props especially when observing his .304 expected average and a 44% hard hit rate in his last 23 at-bats and his career production versus Blach including a .339 expected average with four extra base hits.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.