MLB

MLB Betting Picks and Player Props to Target for Saturday 6/22/24

Matthew Lo
Matthew Lo@holla2mlo
MLB Betting Picks and Player Props to Target for Saturday 6/22/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies

Philadelphia Phillies Alternative Team Total Over 4.5 Runs (-166)
Alec Bohm to Record 2+ Bases (-135)

While "The Fightin' Phils" have not shown much offensive life in their last three games after scoring just ten runs, the National League East Division leaders should break out of their slump in a favorable spot versus left-hander Tommy Henry.

There are several reasons we can feel confident Philadelphia can reach their appetizing 6.06 expected run total when focusing on Henry's below-average career metrics as a starter including an ugly 5.08 xFIP and a 5.15 FIP through 163.0 innings, the Phillies' exceptional team production against southpaws this season (7th in wRC+, 5th in wOBA), and today's mouth-watering opportunity to tee off against Arizona's horrid bullpen ranked 26th in xFIP (4.46) and 28th in SIERA (4.28).

With the Phillies set to explode at home versus the Diamondbacks' subpar pitching, look for Alec Bohm to contribute in a big way on Saturday afternoon especially after he produced a .317 expected average, six extra base hits, and a 47% hard hit rate in his last 72 plate appearances.

Boston Red Sox at Cincinnati Reds

Rafael Devers to Record 2+ Bases (-125)

Despite Rafael Devers' recent blank box scores in his last two contests, Boston's slugging third baseman has a great spot to record a positive outcome against Cincinnati's right-hander Frankie Montas.

Today's matchup offers several data points indicating Devers can make several marks on the stat sheet when analyzing potential positive regression heading his way with a wide gap between his .260 average and .302 expected mark this month, Montas' weakness versus left-handed hitting this season (.369 wOBA, 5.14 xFIP, 15.2% fly-ball to home run ratio), and Devers' noticeable production versus this specific pitcher including a .371 expected average, two extra base hits, and a .381 expected weighted on-base average.

Even at an implied 55.5% percentage, expect big things from the Red Sox's top power bat in a great offensive environment ranked fifth in park factors for left-handed hitters.

Atlanta Braves at New York Yankees

Atlanta Braves Over 3.5 Runs (-148)

After picking against Marcus Stroman last Sunday night, we have another opportunity to capitalize on his incoming regression and concerning form in June (6.57 xFIP, 6.36 SIERA) with a red-hot Atlanta offense averaging 5.6 runs in their last six games.

While betting against a pitcher accounting for a 3.08 ERA may seem like a bad idea, Stroman's metrics forecast bad outcomes will happen sooner than later when observing his 4.68 xFIP, an unsustainable 81.2% left on-base percentage, and a career-worst 10.8% walk rate.

When considering Stroman's underwhelming seasonal marks and recent metrics, look for Atlanta offense to continue their recent offensive momentum and exceed their 4.65 projected team total against a pitcher due for a bad start.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.