MLB Betting: 3 Best Player Prop Bets for Saturday 7/27/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB player props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

MLB Player Props

Tyler Phillips Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (-114)

Tyler Phillips of the Philadelphia Phillies is off to a nice start in his MLB career, leading to the distinct possibility he can pitch into the sixth inning today against the Cleveland Guardians.

Phillips has posted a 3.06 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) to back up a 2.81 ERA to this stage, and his 32.7% chase rate is elite so far. The righty's contact splits are a bit odd in the small sample, posting a great hard-hit rate allowed (36.4%) yet awful barrel rate (15.9%).

He's likely got a solid chance to improve the latter today against a Cleveland team that's fallen quite precipitously against righties in the past 30 days. In that period, the Guards have an ugly .622 OPS, .119 ISO, and 24.5% hard-hit rate in the split -- all bottom-two marks in baseball.

They're still not a good matchup for strikeouts (21.3% rate in the last 30 days) despite all the woes, but that'll help keep Phillips' pitch count low. It could range between 85 to 95 pitches today after exactly 85 in his last start against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

FanDuel Research's daily MLB projections expect 5.28 innings from Phillips on Saturday, and he'll need just one out beyond the fifth to cash this pick 'em line.

Yordan Alvarez to Hit a Home Run (+300)

Who doesn't love to back a "Yordong"?

Though Yordan Alvarez might be slightly discounted in a matchup to go yard today in a left-on-left matchup, he shouldn't be. Alvarez has absolutely pummeled left handers in the past month, posting a 1.333 OPS, .417 ISO, 50.0% flyball rate, and 62.5% hard-hit rate in 28 plate appearances. This is actually his better split.

Alvarez draws a weak lefty in the Houston Astros' home tilt with the Los Angeles Dodgers today in the form of Justin Wrobleski. Wrobleski's 4.40 ERA hardly tells the tale when the southpaw has amassed a 5.27 expected ERA (xERA) with massive flyball (59.0%), hard-hit (42.5%), and barrel (17.5%) rates allowed in 14.1 innings.

Plus, when Wrobleski departs, the Dodgers' 'pen sports a 4.43 xFIP over the past month (fifth-worst in MLB), so Alvarez shouldn't be facing a lockdown option later in the game, either.

Our projections expect 0.32 homers out of Alvarez on Saturday, which would imply roughly odds of +265 for at least one if correct.

Luis Garcia to Record 2+ Bases (+125)

The wheels are starting to fall off a bit for Kyle Gibson of the St. Louis Cardinals, so I wanted to circle him as a target on today's loaded docket.

Gibson has ceded 12 earned runs in four July starts, but it's not overly surprising from his season-long peripherals. His 4.81 xERA, .266 expected batting average allowed, 9.5% walk rate, and 9.4% barrel rate are all 35th percentile or worse across baseball.

The Washington Nationals' team wRC+ against right-handers in the past month is underwhelming (100), so this is a much better place to look at individual hitters than team props. With that the case, one of the few Nats still humming against righties is Luis Garcia.

Washington's second baseman has posted a 1.045 OPS, .296 ISO, and 188 wRC+ against orthodox pitchers in the past month. Notably, he's done so with a tiny walk rate (6.3%), which is always a factor to consider before taking a base prop.

We've got Garcia projected for 1.79 total bases in tonight's game, so the plus money on this prop is extremely attractive. He's projected to hit sixth or seventh in Washington's order.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.