MLB Best Bets and Player Props for Saturday 7/13/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Sox

Under 8.5 (+100)

Guaranteed Rate Field is the host of an early Saturday matchup between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago White Sox with first pitch scheduled for 2:10 p.m. Eastern.

Pittsburgh (98 wRC+ against right-handed pitching the last 30 days; 20th in the MLB) and Chicago (77 wRC+ in that split, 29th) are two of the weakest hitting teams against RHP of late -- and these marks are actually better recently than their full-season numbers.

Pittsburgh's full-season wRC+ against RHP is only 85 (27th); Chicago's is 76 (30th).

Pittsburgh's Luis Ortiz (4-2, 2.95 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) owns a more over-friendly 3.92 xERA by comparison, yet Chris Flexen (2-7, 4.95 ERA, 1.38 WHIP) has an xERA of 4.53.

Ultimately, the hitters here don't look likely to take advantage of a middling pitching matchup. Therefore, the under is appealing.

Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox

Red Sox Moneyline (-130)

The Boston Red Sox and Kansas City Royals are tossing out two strong starters in an afternoon tilt at Fenway Park.

Boston's Kutter Crawford (5-7, 3.24 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) looks a bit weaker when compared to Kansas City's Seth Lugo (11-3, 2.21 ERA, 1.04 WHIP) initially, but the underlying data levels things out a bit.

Lugo's xERA is 3.84 with Crawford's sitting at 3.87, and Crawford's strikeout rate (24.8%) is higher than Lugo's (22.5%). The Royals' active roster is only 26th in K% (18.8%), but Boston's is average in that category (22.9%).

However, Boston's wRC+ against RHP is 130 the last 30 days, and KC's is only 87.

The hitting edge and closer-than-first-glance pitching matchup points to Boston's moneyline here.

Colorado Rockies at New York Mets

Mets -1.5 (-105)

The New York Mets are rolling out Christian Scott (0-2, 4.15 ERA, 1.03 WHIP) at home against the Colorado Rockies' Ryan Feltner (1-8, 5.29 ERA, 1.43 WHIP) in a battle of right-handers.

This is another situation where the xERA is pretty close between both pitchers (4.04 for Feltner and 3.90 for Scott), so it's mostly the bullpen and hitting differentials here that stand out.

New York's active bullpen has a SIERA of 3.44 (7th in the Bigs); Colorado's is 4.39 (30th).

New York's splits against righties (134 wRC+ the last 30 days) dominate Colorado's (92), and the Mets' ISO is a league-best .211 in that span, as well.

MLB Player Prop Best Bets

Ryan Feltner Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-122)

Along the lines of liking the Mets to play well, we can look at Feltner's strikeout prop.

Feltner has a projection of 4.46 strikeouts, per numberFire, putting him close to his prop. My K model has his number at 4.10 based on underlying and matchup data.

Feltner's K rate is only 19.6%, and he's now getting a matchup with a Mets side with a 19.3% strikeout percentage against RHP over the last 30 days.

George Kirby Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+102)

George Kirby faces an Los Angeles Angels team that is harder-than-average to strike out (21.6%; 20th in MLB) by RHP the last 30 days.

Beyond that, Kirby's called-strike-plus-whiff rate (CSW%) of 26.6% suggests his strikeout rate (24.3%) is a bit high and should actually be closer to 21.0%, based on my expected K model.

Kirby is projected by numberFire for 5.3 punchouts today, as well, pointing us toward an under.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.