Michigan vs Duke Prediction, Picks and Best Bets

The college basketball season is rolling along, giving us plentiful betting options with so many teams in action each day.

Fortunately, we have abundant tools available that can aid our chances of finding good betting value. Bart Torvik and KenPom are excellent sources that give insights into team-level efficiency, and Sports Reference provides a wide range of useful team stats, as well.

Let's check out FanDuel Sportsbook's college basketball odds to find the best bets and player props for Michigan vs. Duke, which tips at 6:30 p.m. ET.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Duke vs Michigan Prediction and Picks

Under 150.5 Points (-105)

It doesn't sound all that fun to sit down to watch the biggest game of the college basketball regular season and root against points, but I think the under is the right play.

While these teams boast top-tier offenses, they're the two best defenses in the country. KenPom ranks Michigan and Duke first and second, respectively, in adjusted defense.

Michigan's length and athleticism has given teams fits all season. They just played on the road against Purdue, the nation's second-ranked offense, and held the Boilers to 39.1% shooting overall and 30.8% shooting from three. Purdue ended up with 80 points, but 48 of those came in the second half as Purdue kept it just close enough to play the foul game for a while, tacking on some extra points late.

The Wolverines allow the second-lowest true shooting percentage (47.2%) as well as the 23rd-lowest free-throw rate (free throws per field-goal attempt; 27.1%).

Duke also excels at keeping opponents off the charity stripe, giving up the second-lowest free-throw rate (22.2%)

On top of the defenses, Duke's slow pace should help us out. The Blue Devils sit just 270th in adjusted tempo, and that can help slow a Michigan squad that operates as the 13th-fastest tempo.

These teams both rank in the top seven in adjusted offense, so if three-balls are falling, this under recommendation may wind up looking foolish. But Duke's slow pace combined with two stellar defenses has me siding with the under.

Cameron Boozer Under 21.5 Points (-105)

Cameron Boozer has been awesome this season and is the runaway favorite in the Wooden Award odds (-7000). But I think Michigan -- as much as any team -- might be well suited to slow him down.

Boozer is a good shooter -- 39.1% from three -- but can be fairly reliant on bully ball. He does most of his work inside the arc, taking just 3.8 three-point attempts per game. He also beasts on the offensive glass, averaging 3.2 offensive rebounds per game.

The Wolverines should be up for the challenge.

Michigan is outstanding at defending the paint -- anchored by 7-foot-3 center Aday Mara, who swats 2.7 shots per game. The Wolverines usually control the glass, too, owning the eighth-best rebound rate (56.7%).

With Mara protecting the rim and 6-foot-9 defensive ace Yaxel Lendeborg -- who is 23 years old, five years the senior of Boozer -- likely drawing the Boozer assignment, I'm backing Michigan to keep Boozer under 21 points.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.