Miami Open Betting Guide: Wednesday 3/27/24

Kenyatta Storin
Kenyatta Storin@KenyattaStorin
Miami Open Betting Guide: Wednesday 3/27/24

Following an exciting Indian Wells, we get another premier American tennis tournament with the Miami Open.

We're into the second week of the event, and what better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the Miami Open Betting Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

Where can we find betting value in Wednesday's matches?

Miami Open Best Bets

Ekaterina Alexandrova vs. Jessica Pegula

Pegula 2-0 Sets (+135)

While world No. 5 Jessica Pegula hasn't quite been at her best in 2024, she hasn't dropped a set in her three Miami matches and could be finding her form at the right time.

Her last two straight-set wins have been tight battles against 35th-ranked Leyla Fernandez and 20th-ranked Emma Navarro -- she saved a combined 12 of 17 breakpoints -- but avoiding a final set in both encounters is a promising sign.

And despite disappointing results at both the Australian Open and Indian Wells, it hasn't been all bad for Pegula this season, as she also made the semifinals at Adelaide and San Diego. In all, she's up to a solid 9-4 record following these Miami victories.

Looking at a larger sample, we're also talking about a player with a 76.5% win percentage on hard courts over the last 52 weeks, per Tennis Abstract. It doesn't hurt that Pegula has enjoyed past success at this event, making the semifinals each of the last two years.

Ekaterina Alexandrova is fresh off perhaps the best win of her career, ousting world No. 1 Iga Swiatek without dropping a set. It goes without saying that this should give us pause in backing Pegula.

However, even with this run in Miami, she's 11-7 in 2024, so it's not like she's been tearing it up this season, and she actually entered the event on a three-match losing streak. Her 52-week split on hard courts amounts to a less imposing 60.0% win rate, too.

This could be a letdown spot for Alexandrova after such a shocking upset, and given their overall resumes, Pegula should arguably be more than a -176 favorite. That implies 63.8% win odds, whereas Tennis Abstract's Elo ratings give her a 74.4% chance.

Going with Jessica Pegula -2.5 (-128) or Under 21.5 Total Match Games (-110) are ways to back a decisive Pegula victory, but the plus odds are appealing for her to win in straight sets.

Nicolas Jarry vs. Daniil Medvedev

Medvedev -4.5 Games (+110)

Nicolas Jarry powered through Casper Ruud in the last round, giving him his second win over a top-10 opponent this season. He's put up a double-digit ace percentage in all three Miami matches and has faced just two break points in the last two combined.

Despite all that, he's a substantial underdog against one of the world's very best hard-court players in Daniil Medvedev.

Even with Medvedev's form wavering at times this season, he's 17-3 with his only losses coming to Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz, and Ugo Humbert. Sinner and Alcaraz denied him titles at the Australian Open and Indian Wells, respectively, so he's likely hell-bent on finishing the deal here in Miami -- particularly as the defending champion.

Although Medvedev has endured some tough sets here, he's won all six, notably sealing the deal in dominating fashion against both Cameron Norrie (7-5, 6-1) and Dominik Koepfer (7-6, 6-0).

Over the last 52 weeks, Medvedev has the ATP Tour's third-best hard-court win rate (76.5%).

Going back to Jarry, he's 11-7 in 2024, and with clay being his preferred surface, he spent nearly the entire month of February in clay events. His 60.0% win rate on hard courts over the last 52 weeks is solid but ranks 20th.

Tennis Abstract's Elo ratings give Medvedev an 89.3% win probability, which is even higher than his implied odds as a -610 favorite (85.9%). The Russian has covered this spread in all three Miami matches, and he has a great chance to do so again here.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.