Home Run Props Today: Best MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks for Saturday, September 19

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Pete Alonso (+340)
• Kyle Schwarber (+245)
• Matt Olson (+310)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Picks, Props and Predictions Today

Home Run Prediction: Pete Alonso (+340)

Brewers at Orioles, 4:06 p.m. ET

Pete Alonso offers a little more value at +330 in a matchup with Milwaukee left-hander Robert Gasser.

Alonso has 37 home runs on the season, putting him among baseball's top power threats once again. He also just recorded the 300th homer of his career this week.

Gasser is slated to start for Milwaukee and enters Saturday with a 4.30 ERA. The left-hander has struck out 92 batters this season, but this isn't a matchup that should scare us away from Alonso's right-handed power.

Camden Yards isn't the home-run haven it once was for right-handed bats, but Alonso possesses enough raw power to overcome the park dimensions.

Alonso is one of my preferred combinations of upside and odds.

Home Run Prediction: Kyle Schwarber (+245)

Phillies at Mets, 4:11 p.m. ET

Schwarber enters Saturday with 45 homers in 148 games. The underlying power has been elite for quite some time, and he has a 47.0% fly-ball rate this season as well as a 42.6% hard-hit rate.

He'll see Mets right-hander Christian Scott. Scott owns a 3.76 ERA with 127 strikeouts, so this isn't necessarily an easy matchup, but Schwarber's combination of fly balls, barrels and raw power makes him an appealing HR target in most matchups — especially when he has the platoon advantage.

Home Run Prediction: Matt Olson (+310)

Braves at Astros, 7:11 p.m. ET

Matt Olson gives us another high-end left-handed power bat against a right-handed starter.

Olson has slugged 39 home runs in 153 games this season, leaving him within striking distance of his second career 40-homer campaign.

The power resurgence has been evident throughout 2026. His ability to consistently elevate hard contact has long been one of the primary reasons he's been such a dangerous home run hitter.

Houston is scheduled to start right-hander Hayden Wesneski, who enters with a 3.70 ERA. That gives Olson the platoon advantage, and Wesneski's historical home run tendencies add some appeal to the matchup, with Wesneski allowing 1.97 jacks per nine a year ago.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one plate appearance — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't record a plate appearance, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.