NBA

Mavericks vs. Thunder: Betting Picks and Prediction for Game 5

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8

Following back-to-back losses in the series, the Oklahoma City Thunder snagged a game on the road against the Dallas Mavericks, knotting the series at 2-2. The games continue to be low-scoring affairs with the under hitting in three of four contests. Game 4 had the lowest combined total yet at 196. Will the trend keep up for tonight's game?

Oklahoma City is back in Paycom Center and is favored by 4.5 points after being underdogs in the last two meetings. This series will likely go down to the wire as most hoped. According to FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA playoff odds, the lines for each correct score are +350 or lower, and the Thunder winning 4-2 (+210) and 4-3 (+220) currently hold the shortest odds.

Game 5 will be pivotal for where this series heads, for over 80.0% of teams who win Game 5 with the series tied at 2-2 advance to the next round. Let's dive into the latest odds and stats for tonight's matchup. Will Dallas grab another road win, or will OKC win their second straight in the series?

All NBA odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

NBA Playoffs Betting

Mavericks-Thunder Betting Odds

Date and Time: Wednesday, May 15th at 9:30 p.m. ET

Spread: Thunder -4.5 (-108)

Total: 213

Moneyline:

  • Mavericks: +154
  • Thunder: -186

Mavericks vs. Thunder Advanced Stats Breakdown

nERD via numberFire. Adjusted offensive/defensive ratings and pace via DunksAndThrees.

  • Mavericks:
    • nERD: 57.1 (12th)
    • Adjusted Offensive Rating: 117.5 (7th)
    • Adjusted Defensive Rating: 115.3 (18th)
    • Pace: 100.4 (8th)
    • Against-the-Spread Record: 48-34
  • Thunder:
    • nERD: 73.1 (2nd)
    • Adjusted Offensive Rating: 118.3 (3rd)
    • Adjusted Defensive Rating: 111.5 (4th)
    • Pace: 100.8 (5th)
    • Against-the-Spread Record: 46-35-1

Mavericks vs. Thunder Best Bet

Over 213 (-108)

As previously mentioned, the under has been a consistent producer in this series. This has been a surprise, though. Each team was among the top eight fastest paces during the regular season. This has continued into the postseason with the Mavericks holding the eighth-quickest pace while the Thunder have the second-quickest.

The pace hasn't really slowed down in this series. In fact, Dallas is averaging 89.7 field goal attempts per game over the last three contests. The Mavs shot 89.1 field goals per game during the regular season, which was among the top half in the Association.

Efficiency from each team has simply lacked. Dallas has shot a combined 41.9% field goal percentage (FG%) over their last two games. Oklahoma City also comes off a 38.0% shooting percentage. Neither team has excelled from three-point land, either. The Mavericks have shot under 35.0% from deep in three of four contests while the Thunder have converted only 31.0% of their three-point shots over the previous three matchups.

So, why back the over for Game 5? Simply put, I believe it's only a matter of time before these offenses wake up.

Several models are also pointing to the over. This includes Massey Ratings with a projected total of 220, and numberFire is forecasting about a 233 total. numberFire's daily projection model has an 82.92% likelihood for the over versus the implied odds at only 51.9%. This is a bet I'm willing to take considering the intriguing value.

The Thunder's defense has been excellent in the playoffs as it has the lowest rating among active teams. However, the Mavs should still have an advantage from three. They took the third-most shots per game while ranking among the top half in three-point percentage during the regular season. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City gave up the seventh-most three-point attempts in the regular season. Once the shots start falling for Dallas, look out.

On the other side of the ball, the Mavericks' defense doesn't exactly strike fear into opponents. The unit was in the bottom half of rating during the regular season and has still been pretty mediocre with the seventh-best mark in the playoffs. During the regular season, Dallas gave up the 13th-most points in the paint per game. The Thunder averaged the seventh-most points in the paint this season, but they've logged only 33.0 points in the paint per game over the last two games. I don't expect the Mavs' interior defense to keep holding up.

Ultimately, both offenses have advantages in this matchup that they haven't quite tapped into yet. Pair this with models suggesting plenty of points, and we could finally see the over hit in Game 5.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.