Mark Andrews Is a Threat for Fantasy's Top Tight End in 2023

Baltimore Ravens tight end Mark Andrews has been one of fantasy's best tight ends in recent seasons, and despite taking a slight step back last season, his outlook remains very promising moving forward.

What's Andrews' fantasy ceiling in 2023?

Ranking and average draft position (ADP) data for half-PPR scoring.

Mark Andrews Fantasy Football Projection

Projections via numberFire.

2023 Projection: 128 targets, 85 receptions, 939.5 yards, 7.8 touchdowns (182.6 half-PPR points)

numberFire Positional Projection: TE2

Mark Andrews Fantasy Football Outlook

State of the Position

To say that tight end is a wasteland in fantasy football would be an understatement.

Compared to the other non-quarterback positions, tight end is far and away the lowest-scoring, FLEX-eligible position.

Only four tight ends eclipsed double-digit fantasy points per game last season and only nine averaged at least 8.0 PPG, per FantasyPros' 2022 data.

While most leagues only require one starting tight end, the drop-off at the position is more dramatic than any other. Early ADP data from FantasyPros shows five tiers forming at the position.

You can see how dramatically projected points drop as the draft tiers change. If you aren't willing to pull the trigger on a tight end early, you start to run out of capable options fast.

Last year was the perfect example of that, as there had never been such a significant point difference between the first- and second-highest-scoring player at the position. The immortal Travis Kelce led the way with 261.3 fantasy points (15.4 PPG). He scored 88.9 more points than the TE2, T.J. Hockenson. To put into perspective how insane that is, that is the same difference between Hockenson and the TE21, Hunter Henry.

Kelce has dominated the position for years now, finishing as the TE1 in four of the past five seasons and outscoring the next-closest tight end by an average of 42.6 points in those seasons. What happened, you might ask, during that one season Kelce didn't finish as the top fantasy scorer?

Mark Andrews happened.

Just two seasons ago in 2021, Andrews led all tight ends with 247.6 fantasy points. He outscored Kelce by 30.8 fantasy points and averaged a full point per game more than him. While he wasn't able to replicate that last year, Andrews is still the only non-Gronk tight end to finish ahead of Kelce over the past seven seasons.

2022 Rewind

Coming off a 2021 season that saw him rack up 107 receptions, 1,361 yards, and 9 touchdowns, Andrews had the fantasy community reveling at the prospect of a second elite tight end alongside Travis Kelce. Andrews had finished as a top-five fantasy tight end in the previous two seasons, but his 2021 explosion created uncharted expectations for the 27-year-old. In fantasy drafts, he exited draft season with an ADP of 26.

Through six weeks, Andres lived up to the hype -- scoring 95.3 points (15.9 PPG) and slotting in as the TE2. It looked like he and Kelce would be jockeying for the TE1 crown all season long.

Andrews then proceeded to score 58.7 points total over the final 12 weeks, ranking as the TE21 over that span. His hot start still propelled him to a TE4 overall finish, but for most fantasy teams, he was a complete non-factor down the stretch.

Still, it wasn't like Andrews suddenly became a below-average option. Even closing the season the way he did, Andrews still ranked as PFF's third-best tight end. He was atop the position's leaderboards in a number of fantasy-relevant statistics:

• 3rd in receptions (73)
• 1st in target share (28.2%)
• 3rd in average depth of target (10)
• 7th in touchdowns (5)

Injuries likely played a major factor in his rough finish to the year. Both he and quarterback Lamar Jackson dealt with lingering injuries over the second half of the year, resulting in a pair of missed games for Andrews and five absences for Lamar.

However, the Ravens' offense in general struggled to generate any sort of consistent success through the air, and they eclipsed 20 points just once after Week 9. As a result, Baltimore made sweeping changes to their offense ahead of 2023 -- starting with offensive coordinator (OC).

Scheme Change

Baltimore parted ways with Greg Roman after four seasons with the team, hiring Todd Monken to take his place. Under Roman, the Baltimore offense was almost allergic to throwing or playing with any sense of urgency.

*Passing Rate Over Expectation (PROE) subtracts a team's actual pass rate from their expected pass rate. Negative PROE means the team threw less than would be expected by the average team in similar situations, per nfelo.

Aside from an outlier in 2021, which coincided with Andrews' best fantasy season, the Ravens were consistently among the least pass-happy teams in the NFL. Even when they did throw in '21, they played at a snail's pace, ranking in the bottom half of the league in situation-neutral pace just as they did during each of Greg Roman's four seasons.

That should change in 2023.

New OC Todd Monken represents a complete scheme shift in Baltimore. Monken spent the last three seasons at the University of Georgia as their OC but had previously spent time with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Cleveland Browns.

Monken was an early adopter of the NFL's new pass-heavy approach. It's been a few years, but his time in Cleveland (CLE) and Tampa Bay (TB) should give Andrews' fantasy owners some hope for a return to his 2021 production.

Early reports from Baltimore's camp have done more than hint at a new-look Ravens offense. Andrews himself said he thinks "it's going to be a dangerous offense" while offensive lineman Kevin Zeitler described the offense as "pretty fast" and that they're "going to attack and attack and attack."

That bodes well for Andrews, especially given how heavily tight ends were featured during Monken's stint in Tampa Bay. Monken's Bucs' turned Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard into reliable fantasy pieces even with elite, target-hog wideouts in place. Considering Andrews' superior skill set, he at the very least should have a top-five floor.

Baltimore does have another promising young tight end on the roster in Isaiah Likely. Likely flashed in spurts, especially with Andrews out. Monken's offenses have allowed multiple tight ends to thrive, though, and Andrews is far and away their most accomplished receiver. His chemistry with Jackson isn't going away anytime soon, and a more pass-happy approach should only further bolster Andrews' fantasy value.

2023 Preview

The easiest thing Andrews can do to regain fantasy value is positively regress in the red zone.

Per NFLsavant, Andrews garnered 19 red zone targets and just 5 red zone touchdowns. That isn't bad efficiency, but it was a considerably lower touchdown rate despite him commanding the largest red zone target share of his career.

It feels like a cop-out to blame touchdown regression for a disappointing fantasy season, but that's oftentimes the case. Andrews had caught 10, 7, and 9 touchdowns the previous three seasons despite lower target shares than his 2022 campaign. If he had matched his touchdown total from the previous season, he would've been the TE2 -- behind only Kelce.

Flirting with double-digit touchdowns in 2023 is hardly out of the question, even with a revamped Baltimore receiving core. The Ravens notably added Odell Beckham in free agency and drafted Zay Flowers in the first round. They should also get Rashod Bateman back from injury after he appeared in just 7 games last season.

While those three will, in theory, cut into Andrews' opportunities, he's posted at least a 24.1% target share in each of the past four seasons. It's not like the other three are major target hogs, either.

Odell is a major question mark coming off his knee injury, and he's 30 years old. Even when healthy in his last two seasons, he only mustered 17.7% and 22.2% target shares. Bateman has his own injury concerns, but even when he's on the field, he hasn't proved capable of being a primary option, garnering under 18% of Baltimore's targets in each of his first two seasons.

Flowers is a wild card, and he's likely in for a strong rookie season. But that isn't a bad thing for Andrews. He's served as Baltimore's only real receiving weapon for years now. Having attention drawn off of him would likely be a good thing for his fantasy value -- especially with the Ravens slated to throw more.

Final Verdict

Andrews is one of the very best tight ends in football and a consistent, top-five option in fantasy. Entering 2023, he is the ultimate low-risk, high-reward pick. He's proven to have an incredibly high floor, even in a system that was allergic to throwing the football. In a revamped offense with a healthy Lamar Jackson, it's not hard to imagine him returning to his 2021 form.

Looking at where you can get him, the following players are going around Andrews' ADP of 32:

• QB: Joe Burrow (33), Lamar Jackson (38)
• RB: Najee Harris (29), Breece Hall (30), Travis Etienne (34), Jahymr Gibbs (36)
• WR: Chris Olave (28), D.K. Metcalf (31), Deebo Samuel (35)

All of those players would be strong options for any team, but none of them offer the positional advantage Andrews does. Having an elite tight end is one of the biggest cheat codes in fantasy football given the positional scarcity.

If Andrews can return anywhere close to his 2021 form, you could be getting that advantage with your third pick in fantasy drafts.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.