March Madness: The 10 Most Underrated Teams in the NCAA Tournament

Which teams are underrated entering the 2026 Men's College Basketball Tournament? Here are the 10 squads with the largest discrepancy between their seed and where the advanced numbers say they should be ranked.

We're going to be using EvanMiya's ratings as our source of truth. Not only do Evan's numbers calculate offensive and defensive prowess, but they also account for consistency, recent form, and the impact injuries have on the current strength of the roster.

Let's take a look at 10 underrated college basketball teams capable of busting some brackets and breaking some hearts.

Most Underrated Teams in 2026 March Madness

St. John's Red Storm (5 Seed, East Region)

• EvanMiya Rating: 25.5
• Historical Seed Rating: 20.5
• Differential: +5.0

St. John's cleaned UConn's clock in the Big East championship game on Saturday to close out their pre-tournament body of work at 28-6 overall and 18-2 in the conference.

Many are calling the East the region of death this year, and that's in large part because a dangerous club like the Red Storm is only a 5 seed. EvanMiya's numbers say St. John's is playing like a low-2 or high-3 seed, and yet they get a comfy first-round matchup against an offensively-challenged Northern Iowa team. In fact, UNI grades out quite a bit below an average 12-seed, making this draw even nicer for the Red Storm.

To boot, the 4 seed awaiting St. John's in the second round (should both advance) is Kansas. The Jayhawks are not exactly lighting the court on fire of late, backing into the dance after dropping 3 of their final 5 contests. Could we see St. John's plowing ahead into the Round of 16? Easily.

The player to watch for the Red Storm is obviously Zuby Ejiofor. The Most Outstanding Player of the Big East Tournament dropped 18 points and gobbled up 9 boards in the title game win against UConn. The 6'9 senior is averaging 16 points, 7 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 2.1 blocks, and 1.2 steals per game on the season. He is a presence that UNI's Missouri Valley Conference schedule cannot prepare them for.

Iowa Hawkeyes (9 Seed, South Region)

• EvanMiya Rating: 20.1
• Historical Seed Rating: 18
• Differential: +2.1

Most will be surprised to see Iowa on this list, considering they are not in good form, not in the slightest. The Hawkeyes were bounced from the Big Ten tournament by Ohio State in their 2nd game and lost each of their last 3 regular season Big Ten contests prior to that.

This is an Iowa team that was 8-4, at their peak, in conference play, and we believe them to be better than their recent play would indicate. The Hawkeyes are bolstered by a high-scoring senior guard, Bennett Stirtz. Stirtz is averaging an even 20 a game and is the type of player who can lead a team through the crucial final minutes of a high-pressure tournament game.

If Iowa's recent rough patch is scary, consider that Clemson was 3-4 in February, and their two ACC Tournament wins were against a .500 Wake Forest team and a banged-up North Carolina skeleton crew.

Tennessee Volunteers (6 Seed, Midwest Region)

• EvanMiya Rating: 23.3
• Historical Seed Rating: 20
• Differential: +3.3

The Vols sport an extremely balanced attack this year, grading out well on both sides of the ball. Tennessee has displayed consistency in performance throughout the season, largely because they do not rely solely on the three-ball to beat people.

How about the first-round draw for Tennessee? It can't get any better. The Vols await the winner of the play-in game between Miami (OH) and SMU, neither of which is poised to present Coach Barnes' team any issues.

Despite the 31-1 record, Miami (OH) is one of the most overrated teams in the bracket and would have been on the outside looking in with just one more loss. What about SMU? Their defense is pathetic. Good three-point shooting will be their only hope of upsetting Tennessee (should they make it past Miami in the play-in, that is).

SMU does shoot well from deep, ranking 23rd in the nation at 37.4%. The Vols are built to neutralize this one Mustang strength, though, as they rank 23rd in the nation in holding opponents to 30.6% shooting from beyond the arc.

Vanderbilt Commodores (5 Seed, South Region)

• EvanMiya Rating: 24.2
• Historical Seed Rating: 20.5
• Differential: +3.7

Another team from the state of Tennessee deserves some attention this March. Apparently, Vanderbilt is good at both football and basketball now? What strange times.

The Commodores look, play, and smell like a top-15 program, and yet they are seeded 5th by the committee. There is some value there, folks. Vandy draws the 12-seed McNeese Cowboys in the first round. If that name sounds familiar, it's because they upset Clemson last year and saw their student manager go viral for his big boombox.

This year's McNeese is not last year's McNeese, though, and Vanderbilt is a team that plans to play far past the first weekend of this tournament. The advanced metrics say this is more than a pipe dream.

Illinois Fighting Illini (3 Seed, South Region)

• EvanMiya Rating: 30.0
• Historical Seed Rating: 23.5
• Differential: +6.5

Illinois's large differential of 6.5 between its EvanMiya rating and where 3 seeds have historically ranked is the largest on this list. The body of work the Illini have turned in this winter, combined with their current form and healthy roster are good enough to contend for a top seed, and yet the committee slotted them at 3.

What does Illinois do well? Score. The Illini rank 1st in the land in offensive efficiency and 19th in points per game (84.4). They control the pace of games as well as any team in college ball this year, which synergizes extremely well with their so-so defense that ranks 81st in the nation in efficiency.

If we're claiming that Illinois could be a 1 seed, we must be able to make the claim that they can go all the way and cut down the nets in Indy on April 6. That might be a bit too rosy for this bunch. Teams ranking outside the top 30 in defensive metrics have a terribly difficult time going deep in this tournament.

Perhaps the safest take on Illinois is that they are a 2-seed caliber team with potential to hang with any 1 seed, provided they can control the pace of the game. Illinois will get beaten if the game becomes a track meet.

Louisville Cardinals (6 Seed, East Region)

• EvanMiya Rating: 22.4
• Historical Seed Rating: 20
• Differential: +2.4

The 'Ville is one of the several entries on this list from the "region of death," the East. The committee threw them in as a 6, but the analytics say Louisville plays with the strength of a low-3 or high-4 seeded team.

Most folks were going to pick Louisville over 11-seed USF before they read this, but Louisville being underrated really comes into play in the second round, where we will see a potential matchup between the Cards and the 3-seed Spartans of Michigan State.

Historically, 3s beat 6s at a 60% clip. Louisville would match up really well against most other 3 seeds across the history of this tournament. The sad news for Coach Kelsey's squad is that the Spartans are also considered an underrated team by the advanced metrics. They appear later on this list.

Alabama Crimson Tide (4 Seed, Midwest Region)

• EvanMiya Rating: 22.7
• Historical Seed Rating: 21.5
• Differential: +1.2

The Crimson Tide comes at you with a little more juice than is historically typical for a 4 seed. The analytics peg Alabama as more of a low-3 kind of team, which isn't a huge discrepancy, but hey, we're nearing the end of our list.

Defense, or a lack thereof, is what prevents Alabama from being seeded 1 or 2 like in tournaments past. It's not fair to judge the Crimson Tide on their points allowed per game because they play at such a fast pace. Those numbers are inflated.

We can, however, judge their defensive efficiency, which is quite terrible. The Tide rolls in at 234th in the nation in that metric. That ain't gonna get it done in a single-elimination format. The offense is as good as ever in Tuscaloosa right now, which is what makes this team scary and possibly worthy of a higher seed.

Alabama is the only team in all of D1 college basketball averaging north of 90 points per game. They'll speed you up, and they'll spit you out if you're not ready or able to neutralize their strengths.

Could Alabama embark on a deep run? Absolutely. History tells us, though, that their weak defense makes winning a championship fairly unrealistic. Being ranked 60th in defensive efficiency is considered too low. 234th? Get outta here.

Ohio State Buckeyes (8 Seed, East Region)

• EvanMiya Rating: 20.9
• Historical Seed Rating: 19
• Differential: +1.9

Another East Region team whose pedigree is a bit stronger than the little number next to their name in the bracket, Ohio State, gave 1-seed Michigan a run for their money in the Big Ten tournament before bowing out and getting slotted in at 8 by the committee.

Ohio State is a bit stronger than 8 seeds typically are. We'll chalk this one up to the Buckeyes getting beaten up by a brutal Big Ten schedule and now peaking at the right time. Their first-round matchup, the TCU Horned Frogs, is several notches worse than a 9 seed should be.

Michigan State Spartans (3 Seed, East Region)

• EvanMiya Rating: 24.6
• Historical Seed Rating: 23.5
• Differential: +1.1

Tom Izzo. The Mike Tomlin of college basketball coaches. He went the distance when he was young and has been good, not great, ever since. This time around, Izzo's Spartans are thrown into a brutal East Region that you've already heard plenty about if you're actually reading this.

Not too many folks outside of Fargo will be picking Michigan State to lose in the first round, but that potential second-round matchup with 6-seeded Louisville could be very fun. Both Louisville and Michigan State appear on this list of underrated teams, meaning the winner of that matchup (which isn't guaranteed to even happen) will have overcome one of the major obstacles that made this region so treacherous.

UCLA Bruins (7 Seed, East Region)

• EvanMiya Rating: 20.3
• Historical Seed Rating: 19.5
• Differential: +0.8

As if we needed any more proof that the East is a loaded region with battle-tested warriors at every turn. Not only was UCLA able to go 13-7 in their Big Ten schedule, but they did so as a West Coast team in a primarily Eastern conference. Talk about a nightmarish travel schedule.

The long plane rides and hotel stays will continue as the committee placed the Bruins in the East region, with their first games in Philadelphia, about 2,400 miles from Los Angeles. This would negatively impact many 7 seeds, but not UCLA. They've been preparing for this exact scenario all season.

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