Indian Wells Betting Guide: Thursday 3/14/24

Indian Wells -- aka the BNP Paribas Open -- is one of the world's most prestigious non-major tennis tournaments, often unofficially regarded as the "Fifth Grand Slam."

We're into the second week of the event, and what better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the Indian Wells Betting Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

Let's see which matches in the quarterfinals could have the most betting value on Thursday.

Indian Wells Best Bets

Jiri Lehecka vs. Jannik Sinner

Under 20.5 Total Match Games (-120)

Jannik Sinner has breezed through this tournament thus far, winning all three matches in straight sets. The 2024 Australian Open champion remains undefeated this season, now boasting a 15-0 record.

It's hard to see many players beating Sinner right now, let alone the lowest seed left in the draw. This is no disrespect to Jiri Lehecka (32nd seed), who has impressed in this tournament, ousting both Andrey Rublev (5 seed) and Stefanos Tsitsipas (11 seed) in rather comfortable fashion.

Despite those big wins, Lehecka's overall body of work on hard courts simply pales in comparison to Sinner's. Over the last 52 weeks, Sinner has the best win percentage on the surface (88.9%), whereas Lehecka is 30th (55.0%). The Italian also has a whopping five hard court titles in that time, including the aforementioned Australian Open. Lehecka's earned one title -- his first ever just a couple of months back.

Further backing this notion, Sinner is a -800 favorite (88.9% implied win odds), and Tennis Abstract's Elo ratings are even more bullish (91.5% win odds).

As such a massive favorite, backing Sinner to cover -4.5 games (-146) is a logical play, particularly if the odds improve. But as of this writing, I like the better value we're getting on this match to go under 20.5 games, something Sinner has achieved in each of his three Indian Wells matches.

Alexander Zverev vs. Carlos Alcaraz

Zverev ML (+196)

I never like going against Carlos Alcaraz, but the odds are long enough on the other side for me to consider siding with Alexander Zverev to pull off the upset.

That's because Zverev has been the rare player to give Alcaraz trouble, owning a 5-3 advantage in their head-to-head. Notably, Zverev has won each of their last two meetings -- both on hard courts -- most recently besting Alcaraz in four sets at the Australian Open.

It's not like the Spaniard has showcased dominant form since that match, either. Alcaraz was actually playing in clay tournaments prior to this event, and the results weren't especially noteworthy. He beat a pair of qualifiers ranked outside the top 100, lost to Nicolas Jarry, and retired from a match due to an ankle injury.

While Alcaraz has stepped things up at Indian Wells -- after dropping his opening set, he's cruised through the last six -- he also hasn't faced someone of Zverev's caliber yet, with his highest-ranked opponent being Felix Auger-Aliassime (31st).

Admittedly, Zverev has also endured some ups and downs in the young season, but the highs include a semifinal appearance at the Australian Open and a strong performance at the United Cup for Germany. His Indian Wells victories over Tallon Griekspoor and particularly 10th-ranked Alex De Minaur should have his confidence up for this difficult matchup.

Per Tennis Abstract's model, Zverev is showing a 39.1% win probability. That suggests he should be priced at roughly +156, so being able to back him at +196 is very intriguing.

Daniil Medvedev vs. Holger Rune

Medvedev -3.5 Games (-104)

Daniil Medvedev is coming off a straight-sets win over World No. 13 Grigor Dimitrov, suggesting he could be peaking at the right time.

Dating back to last August, Medvedev has been a finalist at four different hard court events (US Open, Beijing, Vienna, and the Australian Open) but failed to finish the deal in all four. Seeing as he was also the 2023 Indian Wells runner-up, the Russian is likely itching to lift the trophy this time around.

Considering he has the Tour's third-best hard-court win percentage (76.5%) over the last 52 weeks, no one would be shocked if he does so this time around.

At the very least, I'm not sure Holger Rune is the guy to stop him from getting one step closer, as Rune's hard-court win rate (53.8%) over the last 52 weeks is just 33rd.

While Rune did well to beat a former Indian Wells champion in the last round (Taylor Fritz), he's still only 3-7 over his last 10 matches against top-20 players. He's also lost six straight full matches to top-10 players, including a clay match versus Medvedev -- a surface where Rune should've had the advantage.

Tennis Abstract forecasts Medvedev as a clear favorite (75.4%). I like Daniil to win this in straight sets, which would put him in a great spot to cover this spread.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.