How Many Games Will the Brewers Win in 2024?

Zack Bussiere
Zack Bussiere@ZackBussiere
How Many Games Will the Brewers Win in 2024?

The Milwaukee Brewers finished last season with a 92-70 record, good for a first-place finish in the NL Central and the third-best record in the National League. It was the Brewers’ second division title in three seasons, but for the fifth time in six seasons, their trip to the postseason ended without a World Series appearance.

After a busy offseason that included a change in managers and the departure of ace Corbin Burnes, what is the Milwaukee Brewers' win total set at for 2024, per the MLB win totals at FanDuel Sportsbook?

The Milwaukee Brewers' win total is listed at 77.5 with -115 odds on the under.

Let's dig into what we can expect from the Brewers this year and which side of the win total should interest you.

All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published. nERD via numberFire. Projections via FanGraphs.

Milwaukee Brewers Win Total Odds

Milwaukee Brewers Over/Under 77.5 Wins

  • Over: -105
  • Under: -115

Why Milwaukee Could Win Over 77.5 Games (-105)

It’s the start of a new era in Milwaukee, and their short-term outlook is notably worse than their recent results. Milwaukee had plenty of turnover this offseason, including a change in manager and the trade of Corbin Burnes to the Baltimore Orioles.

After leading baseball in runs allowed per game last season (3.99), Milwaukee is expected to take a significant step back in 2024. FanGraphs’ projections expect the Brewers to allow 4.64 runs per game, 13th in baseball. That is a significant decline to overcome, but Milwaukee’s win total accounts for it.

The last time Milwaukee didn’t win at least 78 games, excluding the shortened season in 2020, was in 2016 when they finished with 73. Their win total this season is 14.5 wins below what they recorded in 2023.

Milwaukee has made the playoffs in five of their last six seasons, and the one season they didn’t, they still won 86 games. Expectations need to be lowered for this season, but this is still a club with a solid core that has grown accustomed to successful seasons.

To counter their expected decline on the mound, Milwaukee will need to improve at the plate. They ranked 17th in runs per game last season (4.49), and FanGraphs expects them to improve slightly in 2024 to 4.58. The result is a projected run differential of –10, down significantly from last season (+81). That puts them firmly in a large group of clubs projected to finish at or around .500 -- FanGraphs projects them to finish with 80 wins.

Their starting rotation is worse, but the Brewers still have difference makers at the plate in William Contreras (3.9 projected WAR), Willy Adames (3.7), and Christian Yelich (2.4). They also have potential in outfielder Jackson Chourio, the second overall prospect in baseball, and a bullpen that includes Trevor Megill (1.3 WAR). Expectations do need to be lowered in Milwaukee, but this is still a team capable of winning 78 games.

Why Milwaukee Could Win Under 77.5 Games (-115)

On the surface, the Brewers have a large problem to solve in 2024.

They finished last season ranked 17th in runs scored per game (4.49) and 1st in runs allowed per game (3.99). This season, FanGraphs expects them to finish 21st in runs scored per game (4.58) and 13th in runs allowed per game (4.64). After averaging out as a top-10 team in 2023, they aren’t projected to be a top-12 team on either side of the ball in 2024.

The departure of Burnes to Baltimore leaves Milwaukee’s starting rotation with just one ace, Freddy Peralta (3.1 WAR). Outside of Peralta, the Brewers don’t have another starter with a projected WAR greater than 1.7. FanGraphs has their starting rotation ranked 18th overall in projected WAR. The Brewers' success in 2023 came from an elite defense that heavily supported an underachieving offense. That support is now gone.

Milwaukee made plenty of moves this offseason, which introduces more uncertainty. Making things more difficult for the Brewers is the depth of the NL Central. The division lacks an elite team, with the St. Louis Cardinals projected to finish in first with 83 wins, but there are no extremely weak sides, either. The Pittsburgh Pirates are projected to finish last with 77 wins. The only division with more wins projected for its last-place side is the AL East.

Milwaukee will almost certainly be worse in 2024 than they were in 2023. The question is how much worse. There are plenty of obstacles on their path to 78 wins.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.