How Many Games Will the Angels Win in 2024?

Zack Bussiere
Zack Bussiere@ZackBussiere
How Many Games Will the Angels Win in 2024?

The Los Angeles Angels finished last season with a 73-89 record, good for a fourth-place finish in the AL West and the fourth-worst record in the American League. It was the Angels’ ninth consecutive season finishing below .500.

After an offseason where they lost Shohei Ohtani, what is the Los Angeles Angels' win total set at for 2024, per the MLB win totals at FanDuel Sportsbook?

The Los Angeles Angels' win total is listed at 72.5 with -110 odds on the under and over.

Let's dig into what we can expect from the Angels this year and which side of the win total should interest you.

All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published. nERD via numberFire. Projections via FanGraphs.

Los Angeles Angels Win Total Odds

Los Angeles Angels Over/Under 72.5 Wins

  • Over: -110
  • Under: -110

Why Los Angeles Could Win Over 72.5 Games (-110)

The Angels enter 2024 with the unenviable task of replacing the most impactful two-way player in baseball -- Shohei Ohtani.

Last season, the Angels were a decent team at the plate, as their 4.56 runs per game ranked 16th. Their primary issue was their pitching. Their 5.11 runs allowed per game ranked 25th.

The result was a –90 run differential that ranked 23rd. They were one of only four teams to average at least 4.5 runs per game and finish with a negative run differential alongside the Arizona Diamondbacks (-15), Boston Red Sox(-4), and Cincinnati Reds (-38).

For the Angels to win over 72.5 games, their pitching almost certainly has to improve. FanGraphs’ projections expect that it will, slightly. They have the Angels projected for 4.76 runs allowed per game -- the seventh-worst in baseball but an improvement from 2023. The Angels placed an emphasis on their bullpen in free agency, and they will need it to pay off to support a starting rotation that lacks a clear ace.

If their pitching improves, the Angels will also need their young core to step up to replace Ohtani’s production at the plate. The good news for the Angels is they still have one of the best players in the game in Mike Trout, and FanGraphs' Depth Charts projections expect him to post a 4.3 WAR this season. Combined with their young core of Zach Neto (2.9 WAR), Logan O'Hoppe (2.0 WAR), and Nolan Schanuel (1.7 WAR), the Angels have the potential to improve their runs scored per game. FanGraphs expects them to do so, as their 4.76 projected runs per game is an increase from 2023 and ranks 10th in the league.

Overall, FanGraphs’ projections expect the Angels to still be a below .500 club but exceed their current win total of 72.5 with 78 projected wins.

Why Los Angeles Could Win Under 72.5 Games (-110)

Even with the best two-way player in the league on their roster, the Angels still only won 78 games last season. They are projected to improve slightly on both sides of the ball but are still projected to finish with a run differential of –26, the seventh-worst in the league.

Ohtani’s impact simply can’t be overstated. In 2023, he posted a 6.6 WAR at the plate, the fifth-best in baseball. As a pitcher, he posted a 2.4 WAR in 2023 and a 5.6 WAR in 2022. His absence leaves Los Angeles trying to replace both an ace pitcher and a top-five hitter. For a team that has underachieved for nearly a decade, that is an extremely difficult task.

The Angels' plan to replace that production with quantity over quality is projected to work, but their lack of high-end talent in their starting rotation leaves them vulnerable to the same issues they had last season. The Angels are projected to allow around 799 runs in 2024. Last season, eight teams allowed at least that many runs and only two of those eight, the Angels (73 wins) and the Reds (82 wins), won at least 73 games.

It is tough to win games when you struggle on the mound. Los Angeles improved their bullpen during the offseason, but their starting rotation doesn’t have a single pitcher with a projected WAR above 2.5. Last season, a WAR of 2.5 ranked 34th in the majors. Not having a single starter ranked inside such a low bar will make things difficult for the Angels in 2024.

That difficulty is heightened playing in an AL West that features the Houston Astros, Seattle Mariners, and Texas Rangers. FanGraphs projects all three to finish at or above .500. It all adds up to a difficult path for the Angels to repeat their 73 wins from 2023.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.