How Has NFL Free Agency Affected Betting Odds for the 2024 Season?

Skyler Carlin
Skyler Carlin@skyler_carlin
How Has NFL Free Agency Affected Betting Odds for the 2024 Season?

The NFL offseason is underway with free agency dominating headlines. Since the legal tampering period took place and new league year began, we've seen plenty of interesting roster moves made throughout the NFL.

Where a players signs -- or gets traded to -- can alter the outlook of a certain team for the 2024-2025 campaign. While there hasn't been many drastic shifts, some of the Super Bowl odds and Division Winner odds have been adjusted over on FanDuel Sportsbook since free agency began.

The odds for each team could see more changes in the future depending on the results of the 2024 NFL Draft and other roster moves that are inevitably going to be made. With free agency still rolling along, let's take a look at a few of the revisions that have occurred from before free agency began to now.

NFL Free Agency Odds

How Has Kirk Cousins Changed the Market for the Atlanta Falcons?

Arguably the biggest signing in free agency thus far has been Kirk Cousins joining forces with the Atlanta Falcons. Following the veteran quarterback's decision to sign with the Falcons, our own Scott Edwards Jr. discussed what to expect from Cousins in his debut season in Atlanta.

With Cousins finally giving the Falcons a franchise signal-caller to lead the offense, Atlanta's odds to win the Super Bowl went from +3300 to +3000 upon his signing. Before suffering a season-ending Achilles injury last season, Cousins was having one of the best years of his career, posting 2,331 yards, 18 touchdowns, and only five interceptions in eight games.

Being that the winner of the NFC South has secured the division title with nine or fewer wins in back-to-back years, the Falcons jumped from +130 to -110 odds to win the division since free agency began. Having Cousins targeting the likes of Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and Bijan Robinson has many understandably expecting the Falcons to be a much-improved team under new head coach Raheem Morris.

What Have the Houston Texans Done to Alter Their Outlook in 2024?

After advancing to the Divisional Round of the playoffs a season ago, the Houston Texans entered the offseason with plenty of cap space. While the Texans have lost the likes of Jonathan Greenard, Maliek Collins, Sheldon Rankins, and Blake Cashman on defense, they also have brought in Danielle Hunter, Denico Autry, and Jeff Okudah.

Besides retaining Dalton Schultz and Noah Brown, the Texans also acquired Joe Mixon via trade from the Cincinnati Bengals to replace Devin Singletary at running back. There's no doubt the additions of Hunter and Mixon are big reasons why Houston's Super Bowl odds have increased from +2500 to +2000 since free agency kicked off.

Within the division, the Texans have gone from having +170 odds to win the AFC South to +150. The loss of Calvin Ridley to the Tennessee Titans has hurt the Jacksonville Jaguars while simultaneously improving Houston's odds of winning the division in back-to-back years.

Did the Signings of Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry Shift Any Odds?

Two of the biggest signings at the running back position included Saquon Barkley remaining in the NFC East to play for the Philadelphia Eagles while Derrick Henry inked a deal with the Baltimore Ravens. As much as both talented backs should help their new teams, neither of them caused a massive shift in the Super Bowl or Division Winner markets.

The Ravens were sitting at +900 before free agency began to win the Super Bowl next season, and that's where they remain. Meanwhile, the Eagles have gone from +1700 to +1600 to win the Super Bowl next season following a collapse in the second half of last season.

Surprisingly, the Eagles didn't receive a boost in odds to win the division (+135) despite the lack of moves the Dallas Cowboys have made thus far. The same can be said for the Ravens, who remain the favorites to win the competitive AFC North at +105 odds.

Will Keenan Allen and D'Andre Swift Be Major Difference Makers for the Chicago Bears?

One of the most surprising moves of the offseason came when the Los Angeles Chargers traded veteran receiver Keenan Allen to the Chicago Bears. Along with bringing in Allen to an offense that already had D.J. Moore and Cole Kmet, the Bears also signed D'Andre Swift from the Eagles.

It should be noted that the Bears still possess the No. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, and the expectation is for them to select Caleb Williams out of USC. Taking all of that into account, the Bears have gone from being tied for the 18th-shortest odds to win the Super Bowl (+5000) to being tied for the 15th-shortest odds (+4000) after landing Allen.

On the other hand, Chicago still has the third-shortest odds to win the NFC North (+350) after having +400 odds to win the division before free agency got underway.

Even at 31 years old, Allen led the Chargers in target share (32.0%), air yards share (38.0%), and yards per route run (2.53) in 2023, via NextGenStats. Adding Allen and Swift -- along with the belief of Williams or one of the quarterback prospects will be better than Justin Fields -- has led to an optimistic outlook surrounding the Bears entering the 2024 campaign.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.