NZ - Waverley - Race 5

Thoroughbred

20 Runners

Maiden

Turf

GOOD 4

14.4K

VIEW

Verdict

CARTER JOHN (1) had an excuse when being beaten as the favourite in his penultimate start, and then was a neck back from the winner at Whanganui just over 8 weeks ago. The gap between runs would have done him no harm, and he can break through for an overdue win here, especially if the track is wet. IVY TIME (6) has been thereabouts in all of her 5 runs to date, and she will be even better with more time. A wet track will be no problem, and she won't lack fitness. Stick with her on an each-way basis. WANGANELLA (13) has been narrowly beaten in both of her career starts over this trip, and she has the advantage of the pole position here. Michael McNab is in good form, and the pair can get the job done this time. PEE BEE GIRL (12) won the most recent of her 2 trials, and Craig Grylls has a formidable association with her local trainers. A wide gate on a heavy track might be an advantage, and any market moves should be followed. LA KWIK (11) drops back in trip, and is worth including.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob
1	Returns from a 58-day let-up. Most recently 2nd of 12 at Wanganui on January 19 over 1m, slow going long-neck behind Surround Sound with 129lbs at $3.30. Before that 5th of 11 at Otaki on December 26 over 1m, slow going 1.5 len behind Dark And Dusty with 129lbs at $2.90. Key runner. 1st Pick 1 Carter John Jockey: Kelly Myers Trainer: David Haworth J: Kelly Myers T: David Haworth	113	-	-	-	19%
Analysis Returns from a 58-day let-up. Most recently 2nd of 12 at Wanganui on January 19 over 1m, slow going long-neck behind Surround Sound with 129lbs at $3.30. Before that 5th of 11 at Otaki on December 26 over 1m, slow going 1.5 len behind Dark And Dusty with 129lbs at $2.90. Key runner.
6	Most recently 4th of 8 at Trentham on March 1 over 6f, slow going 5.5 len behind Furiosa with 125lbs at $8.40. The race before that 5th of 9 at Otaki on February 8 over 7f, on a slow track, 3.5 len behind Riomosa with 122lbs at $4.10. Expected to do much better. 2nd Pick 6 Ivy Time Jockey: Masahiro Hashizume Trainer: Allan Sharrock J: Masahiro Hashizume T: Allan Sharrock	95	-	-	-	8%
Analysis Most recently 4th of 8 at Trentham on March 1 over 6f, slow going 5.5 len behind Furiosa with 125lbs at $8.40. The race before that 5th of 9 at Otaki on February 8 over 7f, on a slow track, 3.5 len behind Riomosa with 122lbs at $4.10. Expected to do much better.
13	Third race start today. At debut, 4th of 12 at Te Aroha on February 11 over 7f, slow going 0.6 len behind Rock Ice carrying 121lbs at $15.60. Last start tracked the speed and boxed on steadily 3rd of 9 at Taupo on February 22 over 7f, 0.6 len behind Ruby Rush carrying 123lbs at $3.20. Winning chance. 3rd Pick 13 Wanganella Jockey: Michael Mcnab Trainer: Andrew Forsman J: Michael Mcnab T: Andrew Forsman	190	-	-	-	46%
Analysis Third race start today. At debut, 4th of 12 at Te Aroha on February 11 over 7f, slow going 0.6 len behind Rock Ice carrying 121lbs at $15.60. Last start tracked the speed and boxed on steadily 3rd of 9 at Taupo on February 22 over 7f, 0.6 len behind Ruby Rush carrying 123lbs at $3.20. Winning chance.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Main Track Only

A horse entered for main track only (MTO) is one hoping the weather forecast or track conditions will move the race off the turf course and onto the main track. They are scratched the morning of the race if the conditions stay dry.

Bleeder

A horse that bleeds due to a ruptured blood vessel during a race or workout. The medication Lasix can fix this problem.

Track Bias

The term used to identify which parts of the track or running styles are producing more winners.