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4:00 AM

AU - Seymour - Race 8

Thoroughbred
16 Runners
6f
Benchmark
Turf
GOOD 4
23.3K

All race stats and comments are provided by numberfire. Complex algorithms are used to calculate stats like the power rating. Numberfire picks are provided by horse racing experts that work with numberfire.

Verdict

Handy little clash to finish and siding with the upside of YOUWROTEUPONIT (10) for the Begg yard. She was tipped out after a solid debut win, resuming off a long spell at Geelong when boxing on late for second in a Class 1. She should be fitter for that and 6f here from the ideal draw can see her go one better. THUNDER AWARD (8) can mix his form. He was poor last time when into a tricky spot at Mornington but his form prior was rock solid for this and he'll be the one closing late off what looks a good tempo. FROSTED IN TIME (7) is a tricky one. He was utterly dominant winning his maiden by 9 lengths at Kilmore two back, going much slower in front last time at Ballarat but ultimately a bit disappointing as a $2.15 favourite when second. For now, the Kilmore win is an outlier, but if he can run to that level again he'll go close. ASIATIC (13) struggled out to 7f at Pakenham but had beaten a subsequent winner fresh and can improve. MR ASSERTIVE (5) is consistent and in the mix.
numberFire Picks
Horse Stats
#/SilkHorse#/HorsePower RatingHigh SpeedWin %Top 3%Win ProbOdds
10
Youwroteuponit silk

Second-up. Promising on debut raced right near the speed and boxed on, won by 0.5 len at Pakenham F&M Mdn-Sw April 17 over 6f defeating Villa Royale with 127lbs at $3.50. Went for a spell before returning 2nd in a small field at Geelong Cl1 on November 26 over 5 ½f, 1.75 len behind National Code with 127lbs at $4.40. Solid return and should improve, takes beating.

1st Pick
10

Youwroteuponit

Jockey: Beau Mertens

Trainer: Grahame Begg

J: Beau Mertens

T: Grahame Begg

104---39%13/8

Analysis

Second-up. Promising on debut raced right near the speed and boxed on, won by 0.5 len at Pakenham F&M Mdn-Sw April 17 over 6f defeating Villa Royale with 127lbs at $3.50. Went for a spell before returning 2nd in a small field at Geelong Cl1 on November 26 over 5 ½f, 1.75 len behind National Code with 127lbs at $4.40. Solid return and should improve, takes beating.

8
Thunder Award silk

Most recently got back early 7th of 12 at Mornington Cg&E Bm62 on November 27 over 6f, 4.5 len behind Rosa Aotearoa with 132lbs at $7. The run before that made ground from midfield, 3rd of 10 at Pakenham Bm62 on November 14 over 6f, slow going 0.6 len behind Delicate Lady with 132lbs at $8.50. Can bounce back here.

2nd Pick
8

Thunder Award

Jockey: Jamie Mott

Trainer: Lloyd Kennewell

J: Jamie Mott

T: Lloyd Kennewell

181---19%9/2

Analysis

Most recently got back early 7th of 12 at Mornington Cg&E Bm62 on November 27 over 6f, 4.5 len behind Rosa Aotearoa with 132lbs at $7. The run before that made ground from midfield, 3rd of 10 at Pakenham Bm62 on November 14 over 6f, slow going 0.6 len behind Delicate Lady with 132lbs at $8.50. Can bounce back here.

7
Frosted In Time silk

Form hard to fault. Most recently gave a sight but was run down late 2nd of 8 at Ballarat Cl1 on November 20 over 5 ½f, 0.5 len behind Hiatus carrying 132lbs at $2.15. The race before that favourite, scored a big 9 len win at Kilmore 4yo+ Mdn-Sw October 31 over 5 ½f defeating Brazen Fling with 131lbs at $1.70. Maps ideally and takes catching.

3rd Pick
7

Frosted In Time

Jockey: Jake Noonan

Trainer: Alicia Macpherson

J: Jake Noonan

T: Alicia Macpherson

102---20%4/1

Analysis

Form hard to fault. Most recently gave a sight but was run down late 2nd of 8 at Ballarat Cl1 on November 20 over 5 ½f, 0.5 len behind Hiatus carrying 132lbs at $2.15. The race before that favourite, scored a big 9 len win at Kilmore 4yo+ Mdn-Sw October 31 over 5 ½f defeating Brazen Fling with 131lbs at $1.70. Maps ideally and takes catching.

Horse Racing Basic Terms

Lasix

A medication for the treatment of bleeding in horses that is legal in North America, but not all worldwide jurisdictions.

Bullet

A bullet, or bullet workout, is a workout that was clocked as the best time for a certain distance on a given day.

Fractions

The times recorded during the race; with timing starting just past the gate or when the gates open, then parroted for the quarter, half, three-quarters etc. Used as an indication of ability and speed.