AU - Seymour - Race 5

Thoroughbred

20 Runners

Benchmark

Turf

SOFT 7

24.6K

VIEW

Verdict

Tricky race. ILLUMINANCE (9) finds it tough to win but is very consistent with 11 runner-up efforts from 23 starts. Two runs back have been good, beaten the barest of margins at Cranbourne second up. She should get a nice run here and be right there again. I SAID SO (17) is a 5yo gelding who just bumped into one first up at Bairnsdale. He should come on from that and take holding out. BELLA PIETRA (14) can mix her form but the run two back has her in the mix. Ethan Brown takes the ride which helps. UNAPPROACHABLE (12) comes back in grade off an even showing in town. She maps ideally and can bounce back.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
9	Third-up today and placed third-up in the past. First-up 5th of 9 at Cranbourne Bm62 on June 21 over 7f, slow going 2.75 len behind Jewel Bay with 126lbs at $7. Last start tracked the speed and boxed on steadily 2nd of 13 at Cranbourne Bm62 on July 16 over 6f, on rain affected going, nose behind Best Time carrying 125lbs at $8.50. Best form reads well, she can win this. 1st Pick 9 Illuminance Jockey: Caitlin Hollowood Trainer: Julius Sandhu J: Caitlin Hollowood T: Julius Sandhu	135	-	-	-	39%
Analysis Third-up today and placed third-up in the past. First-up 5th of 9 at Cranbourne Bm62 on June 21 over 7f, slow going 2.75 len behind Jewel Bay with 126lbs at $7. Last start tracked the speed and boxed on steadily 2nd of 13 at Cranbourne Bm62 on July 16 over 6f, on rain affected going, nose behind Best Time carrying 125lbs at $8.50. Best form reads well, she can win this.
17	Second run back. First-up after four months 2nd of 13 at Bairnsdale Bm56 on July 13 over 6f, slow going 5.5 len behind Electric Elvis with 136lbs at $2.90. Previously second-up 2nd of 9 at Sale Mdn-Sw on December 21 over 5 ½f, on a slow track, 4.5 len behind Aliano with 131lbs at $5. Should progress and take beating. 2nd Pick 17 I Said So Jockey: Jason Maskiell Trainer: Wendy Kelly J: Jason Maskiell T: Wendy Kelly	86	-	-	-	25%
Analysis Second run back. First-up after four months 2nd of 13 at Bairnsdale Bm56 on July 13 over 6f, slow going 5.5 len behind Electric Elvis with 136lbs at $2.90. Previously second-up 2nd of 9 at Sale Mdn-Sw on December 21 over 5 ½f, on a slow track, 4.5 len behind Aliano with 131lbs at $5. Should progress and take beating.
19	On a three run winning streak. At the latest run tracked the speed and boxed on steadily, scored a big 3.5 len win at Echuca Bm56 July 24 over 6f in the wet defeating Colt Forty Five carrying 130lbs at $18. The start before that ran on from midfield and won by 2.25 len at Ballarat Synthetic Bm52 July 3 over 6f defeating Whatdoya Mean carrying 130lbs at $4.20. Flying at the moment and expected to prove hard to beat again. 3rd Pick 19 Tomanado Jockey: Non Runner Trainer: Don Dwyer J: Non Runner T: Don Dwyer	97	-	-	-	1%	Scratched
Analysis On a three run winning streak. At the latest run tracked the speed and boxed on steadily, scored a big 3.5 len win at Echuca Bm56 July 24 over 6f in the wet defeating Colt Forty Five carrying 130lbs at $18. The start before that ran on from midfield and won by 2.25 len at Ballarat Synthetic Bm52 July 3 over 6f defeating Whatdoya Mean carrying 130lbs at $4.20. Flying at the moment and expected to prove hard to beat again.

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