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5:40 AM

AU - Flemington - Race 7

Thoroughbred
13 Runners
12.4f
Unknown
Turf
GOOD 4
198.8K

All race stats and comments are provided by numberfire. Complex algorithms are used to calculate stats like the power rating. Numberfire picks are provided by horse racing experts that work with numberfire.

Verdict

The winner gets the golden ticket into the Melbourne Cup and winning machine REVELARE (4) will be aiming to do just that having notched up his seventh victory from 10 starts with a typically tough win over 1 ¼m at Caulfield second up. He hasn't raced beyond that trip but profiles like he'll stay well and while he hasn't been dominant in his wins, his upside appeals again. That said, SMOKIN' ROMANS (1) is proven over this trip and did stick on well behind Revelare at Caulfield, only beaten a long neck. He'll land in a great spot here and looks each way value at double figures. POST IMPRESSIONIST (2) finished last of eight on resumption here but the late splits were fine and he should be much fitter. Don't forget, this horse started $2.50 favourite in a G1 Tancred Stakes at his second Australian run just 18 months ago. MORMONA (7) and BUR DUBAI (12) are lightweight chances from good draws.
numberFire Picks
Horse Stats
#/SilkHorse#/HorsePower RatingHigh SpeedWin %Top 3%Win ProbOdds
4
Revelare silk

Third-up today and won third-up previously. First-up 7th of 11 at Caulfield Bm100 on August 16 over 1m, on a slow track, 2.5 len behind El Rocko with 120lbs at $3.50. Second run from a spell favourite, won by a long-neck at Caulfield Qlty August 30 over 1 ¼m on a rain affected track defeating Smokin' Romans carrying 119lbs at $3.40. Has plenty of upside and can win again.

1st Pick
4

Revelare

Jockey: Declan Bates

Trainer: Robert Hickmott

J: Declan Bates

T: Robert Hickmott

145---35%15/8

Analysis

Third-up today and won third-up previously. First-up 7th of 11 at Caulfield Bm100 on August 16 over 1m, on a slow track, 2.5 len behind El Rocko with 120lbs at $3.50. Second run from a spell favourite, won by a long-neck at Caulfield Qlty August 30 over 1 ¼m on a rain affected track defeating Smokin' Romans carrying 119lbs at $3.40. Has plenty of upside and can win again.

1
Smokin' Romans silk

Third-up today and won third-up previously. First-up second last of 8 at Moonee Valley Bm100 on August 9 over 1 ¼m, slow going 4.5 len behind Relentless Voyager with 130lbs at $20. Last start tried to lead throughout but was claimed late 2nd of 14 at Caulfield Qlty on August 30 over 1 ¼m, on a slow track, long-neck behind Revelare carrying 133lbs at $26. Strong run last time, gives a sight.

2nd Pick
1

Smokin' Romans

Jockey: Non Runner

Trainer: Ciaron Maher

J: Non Runner

T: Ciaron Maher

166---1%1000/1

Analysis

Third-up today and won third-up previously. First-up second last of 8 at Moonee Valley Bm100 on August 9 over 1 ¼m, slow going 4.5 len behind Relentless Voyager with 130lbs at $20. Last start tried to lead throughout but was claimed late 2nd of 14 at Caulfield Qlty on August 30 over 1 ¼m, on a slow track, long-neck behind Revelare carrying 133lbs at $26. Strong run last time, gives a sight.

2
Post Impressionist silk

Having second run back today. Freshened for 42 days. Last start ran last of 8 at this track Qlty Hcp on August 2 over 1/16m, 3.5 len behind Bold Soul carrying 131lbs at $8. At only start last preparation got back early 8th of 10 at this track Aus Cup Pre on March 8 over 1 ¼m, 3.5 len behind Middle Earth with 127lbs at $10. Did enough fresh, can improve quickly.

3rd Pick
2

Post Impressionist

Jockey: James Mcdonald

Trainer: Anthony & Sam Freedman

J: James Mcdonald

T: Anthony & Sam Freedman

125---10%9/1

Analysis

Having second run back today. Freshened for 42 days. Last start ran last of 8 at this track Qlty Hcp on August 2 over 1/16m, 3.5 len behind Bold Soul carrying 131lbs at $8. At only start last preparation got back early 8th of 10 at this track Aus Cup Pre on March 8 over 1 ¼m, 3.5 len behind Middle Earth with 127lbs at $10. Did enough fresh, can improve quickly.

Horse Racing Basic Terms

Underlay

A horse that is going off at lower odds than it deserves based on performance.

State-Bred

A horse bred in a particular state and thus eligible to race in restricted state-bred races. These can be anything from maiden races to stakes events.

Mare

A female horse of five years or more.