GB - Newmarket - Race 5

Thoroughbred

6 Runners

12f

Handicap

Turf

Good (Good to Firm in places)

20.5K

VIEW

Verdict

HARD TO BELIEVE won a Wolverhampton novice that has worked out really well and he's given another chance despite failing to meet expectations at York last time. Handicap newcomers Outflank and Outback Legend are feared most in a race where it's difficult to rule any of the sextet out.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
1	Much improved when winning at Bath on his latter juvenile outing and progressed further when winning 5-runner novice at Wolverhampton in March. Below expectations in mid-field on handicap debut at York 5 weeks ago, but previous form has worked out well and he's worth another chance. 1st Pick 1 Hard To Believe (Ire) Jockey: Rob Hornby Trainer: Andrew Balding J: Rob Hornby T: Andrew Balding	100	-	-	-	25%	3/1
Analysis Much improved when winning at Bath on his latter juvenile outing and progressed further when winning 5-runner novice at Wolverhampton in March. Below expectations in mid-field on handicap debut at York 5 weeks ago, but previous form has worked out well and he's worth another chance.
5	Has run to a similar level when third on all 3 starts in maiden/novices, not given the hardest of times when most recently seen in a 10-runner event at Nottingham (1¼m, good to soft) last month. Step back up in trip/good ground will suit and he should impove now handicapping in first-time blinkers. 2nd Pick 5 Outflank (Ire) Jockey: Luke Catton Trainer: John & Thady Gosden J: Luke Catton T: John & Thady Gosden	95	-	-	-	34%	2/1
Analysis Has run to a similar level when third on all 3 starts in maiden/novices, not given the hardest of times when most recently seen in a 10-runner event at Nottingham (1¼m, good to soft) last month. Step back up in trip/good ground will suit and he should impove now handicapping in first-time blinkers.
2	Bred to stay well and he was suited as expected by the step up in trip when winning a 9-runner maiden at Haydock (11.6f, soft) 29 days ago. Opening mark looks workable and he's open to improvement on handicap debut. 3rd Pick 2 Outback Legend (Ire) Jockey: Zac Lloyd Trainer: Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole J: Zac Lloyd T: Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole	93	-	-	-	23%	7/2
Analysis Bred to stay well and he was suited as expected by the step up in trip when winning a 9-runner maiden at Haydock (11.6f, soft) 29 days ago. Opening mark looks workable and he's open to improvement on handicap debut.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Also Eligible

A horse that is entered but does not draw into the body of the field due to too many entries, and thus is not permitted to start unless there are enough scratches to shrink the field size.

Overlay

A horse going off at higher odds than his recent efforts show that he deserves.

Filly

A female horse that is four years of age or under.