Hong Kong Happy Valley - Race 6

Thoroughbred

12 Runners

8.9f

Restricted

Turf

GOOD

149.1K

VIEW

R10

Verdict

I EXCELLE (12) brings the clearest progressive profile, having gone third at Sha Tin in C5 before beating Smart City by a head there last start. The rise to C4 is the obvious test, but he ticked the distance box last start and showed versatility. Can repeat the dose with a drop in weight. KYRUS TREASURE (3) resumes after a four-month break with two wins from two starts at this track and two wins from four at the distance, including a last-start defeat of Romantic Laos. Trials coming in have been sound and it wouldn't surprise to see him return with a bang. ABSOLUTE HONOUR (1) won first-up at this venue over 1 m, has placed at this trip and draws to get every chance second-up. CASA ROCHESTER (4) was held up when fifth to Akermanis Gold, beaten just over a length, and remains a serious danger if he gets clear running at the right stage.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
12	Continued his rise at Sha Tin last start, winning a Class 5 by a head from Smart City after beginning well and controlling the race. That followed a sound third to All Are Mine when beaten just under two lengths, so his campaign is trending the right way. The rise in grade is manageable and he can go on. 1st Pick 12 I Excelle Jockey: M Yeung Trainer: Pierre Ng J: M Yeung T: Pierre Ng	84	-	-	-	8%	12/1
Analysis Continued his rise at Sha Tin last start, winning a Class 5 by a head from Smart City after beginning well and controlling the race. That followed a sound third to All Are Mine when beaten just under two lengths, so his campaign is trending the right way. The rise in grade is manageable and he can go on.
3	Returns from a four-month break after winning two on end at this track, most recently beating Romantic Laos by half a length as a well-supported favourite. He had earlier scored by two lengths in Class 5 grade, so the winning habit is well established. Rates as a key winning hope. 2nd Pick 3 Kyrus Treasure Jockey: Jerry Chau Trainer: David Eustace J: Jerry Chau T: David Eustace	82	-	-	-	15%	6/1
Analysis Returns from a four-month break after winning two on end at this track, most recently beating Romantic Laos by half a length as a well-supported favourite. He had earlier scored by two lengths in Class 5 grade, so the winning habit is well established. Rates as a key winning hope.
1	Won first-up at this track over 1 m, beating Sky Deep by half a length after being close enough in betting and doing enough late. His previous run was a solid third to Packing Fighter at Sha Tin, beaten two and a half lengths, so the form reads consistently. The 1m is within range, provided he brings the same late strength. 3rd Pick 1 Absolute Honour Jockey: Andrea Atzeni Trainer: F C Lor J: Andrea Atzeni T: F C Lor	95	-	-	-	17%	5/1
Analysis Won first-up at this track over 1 m, beating Sky Deep by half a length after being close enough in betting and doing enough late. His previous run was a solid third to Packing Fighter at Sha Tin, beaten two and a half lengths, so the form reads consistently. The 1m is within range, provided he brings the same late strength.

Upcoming Races

Horse Racing Basic Terms

Rabbit

Also known as a pacemaker; this is a horse with no expected chance of winning but is used to prompt a quick pace on the front end of the race to the benefit of a stablemate who is a closer.

Handicap

A race where a handicapper has assigned weights to be carried by all runners on the basis of their past racing efforts.

Fast

A dry dirt track that is typically an ideal racing surface.