Hong Kong Happy Valley - Race 4

Thoroughbred

12 Runners

Restricted

Turf

GOOD

180.5K

VIEW

Verdict

BUNTA BABY (11) dropped back to this track and trip and didn't have much luck at the start, ending up a long way back before flashing for second behind a smart one. Buick replaces the apprentice hoop and he should be able to sit closer with a cleaner break this time. Can go one better. SUPER SIXTY (2) was held up at a crucial stage here last start when beaten just 1.5L as the race favourite. The wider draw this time is a query, though he does have some early speed and Moreira and Fownes strike at 20% when they team up. Can stay out of trouble this time and land the knockout blow. CAP LINER (6) comes to this track and trip for the first time after some solid come-from-behind efforts down the Sha Tin Straight to begin his career. The Cheekpieces going on should spark him up early and if he can take closer order under Barzalona, then he'll go close to winning. ZETA HEDGE (5) was strong from the front here on debut as a $23 chance. Rates highly on that effort and looks a key player.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
11	Recent form sound. Last start 2nd of 12 at this track on November 19 over 5f, 2.5 len behind Mr Desira carrying 116lbs at $5.80. Before that gave a sight but was run down late 3rd of 12 at Sha Tin on October 12 over 6f, 0.5 len behind Oldtown with 117lbs at $20. Can sit closer this time around and get back to winning ways. 1st Pick 11 Bunta Baby Jockey: William Buick Trainer: Manfred Man J: William Buick T: Manfred Man	94	-	-	-	10%	9/1
Analysis Recent form sound. Last start 2nd of 12 at this track on November 19 over 5f, 2.5 len behind Mr Desira carrying 116lbs at $5.80. Before that gave a sight but was run down late 3rd of 12 at Sha Tin on October 12 over 6f, 0.5 len behind Oldtown with 117lbs at $20. Can sit closer this time around and get back to winning ways.
2	Racing well recently. Returns from a 49-day let-up. At the latest run 4th of 12 at this track on October 22 over 5f, 1.5 len behind Beauty Thunder with 134lbs at $2.40. The start before that sat on the speed and boxed on steadily 2nd of 12 at this track on October 8 over 5f, 1.75 len behind Parents' Love with 132lbs at $10. Will need some luck from out wide but rates highly on recent efforts. 2nd Pick 2 Super Sixty Jockey: Joao Moreira Trainer: Caspar Fownes J: Joao Moreira T: Caspar Fownes	118	-	-	-	20%	4/1
Analysis Racing well recently. Returns from a 49-day let-up. At the latest run 4th of 12 at this track on October 22 over 5f, 1.5 len behind Beauty Thunder with 134lbs at $2.40. The start before that sat on the speed and boxed on steadily 2nd of 12 at this track on October 8 over 5f, 1.75 len behind Parents' Love with 132lbs at $10. Will need some luck from out wide but rates highly on recent efforts.
6	Had two starts to date. At debut, 3rd of 14 at Sha Tin on November 9 over 5f, 1.3 len behind Sight Hermoso with 127lbs at $11. Last start ran on from midfield, 4th of 14 at Sha Tin on November 30 over 5f, 2.5 len behind Packing Glory with 128lbs at $7.50. Cheekpieces go on now and everything points to a forward showing. 3rd Pick 6 Cap Liner Jockey: Mickael Barzalona Trainer: Jamie Richards J: Mickael Barzalona T: Jamie Richards	143	-	-	-	13%	7/1
Analysis Had two starts to date. At debut, 3rd of 14 at Sha Tin on November 9 over 5f, 1.3 len behind Sight Hermoso with 127lbs at $11. Last start ran on from midfield, 4th of 14 at Sha Tin on November 30 over 5f, 2.5 len behind Packing Glory with 128lbs at $7.50. Cheekpieces go on now and everything points to a forward showing.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Pari-Mutuel

A pool style wagering system, where all money input through betting is divided among those with winning tickets (save for various deductions by the track operators).

Main Track Only

A horse entered for main track only (MTO) is one hoping the weather forecast or track conditions will move the race off the turf course and onto the main track. They are scratched the morning of the race if the conditions stay dry.

Underlay

A horse that is going off at lower odds than it deserves based on performance.