Hong Kong Happy Valley - Race 2

Thoroughbred

12 Runners

8.2f

Restricted

Turf

GOOD

149.1K

VIEW

R10

Verdict

LUCK IS BACK (9) is the one to beat after going under by only a head at this track last start when sent out favourite. His previous fourth behind Sunday's Serenade was sound and he has the recent consistency to justify top billing. EXCEED THE LIMIT (1) was also beaten a neck here last start and rates strongly on recent form, with his late work suggesting he is close to another win despite carrying the top weight. VERMILION TEMPEST (8) was within a length at this venue after being bumped and has Caspar Fownes' strong track profile in his corner, but seven previous starts around 1 m without a placing keeps the query alive. FLYING BOOM (5) brings the best last-start Sha Tin closing effort, beaten half a length by Jolly Brilliant, and his one win and three placings from seven starts at the distance make him a genuine danger if he handles this venue first time.

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Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
9	Went within a head of winning at this track last start behind Turin Champions, starting favourite and working home evenly after beginning awkwardly. His fourth behind Sunday's Serenade before that was also solid in a competitive market, and he has since beaten Exceed The Limit through a recent head-to-head line. Proven around 1 m and sets the benchmark again. 1st Pick 9 Luck Is Back Jockey: Vincent Ho Trainer: Pierre Ng J: Vincent Ho T: Pierre Ng	115	-	-	-	20%	4/1
Analysis Went within a head of winning at this track last start behind Turin Champions, starting favourite and working home evenly after beginning awkwardly. His fourth behind Sunday's Serenade before that was also solid in a competitive market, and he has since beaten Exceed The Limit through a recent head-to-head line. Proven around 1 m and sets the benchmark again.
1	Went close at this track last start, staying on from the rear for third behind Shooting To Top and beaten a neck after being an outside chance in the betting. His previous sixth behind Sunday's Serenade was plain enough, though he had raced keenly before finishing one-paced. Top weight and a place-heavy 1 m record are the queries, but he is right in this. 2nd Pick 1 Exceed The Limit Jockey: Lyle Hewitson Trainer: Danny Shum J: Lyle Hewitson T: Danny Shum	144	-	-	-	15%	6/1
Analysis Went close at this track last start, staying on from the rear for third behind Shooting To Top and beaten a neck after being an outside chance in the betting. His previous sixth behind Sunday's Serenade was plain enough, though he had raced keenly before finishing one-paced. Top weight and a place-heavy 1 m record are the queries, but he is right in this.
8	Improved third-up when fourth at this track behind Akermanis Gold, beaten just under a length after being bumped, and that followed a fair seventh behind Happy Smile when he worked home evenly. Caspar Fownes is the top-ranked trainer for wins at this track and the gelding rates well enough on recent form. The concern is his 1 m record: seven previous attempts for no wins or placings. Seven unplaced runs around 1 m temper confidence, but he can win. 3rd Pick 8 Vermilion Tempest Jockey: Alex Badel Trainer: Caspar Fownes J: Alex Badel T: Caspar Fownes	108	-	-	-	10%	9/1
Analysis Improved third-up when fourth at this track behind Akermanis Gold, beaten just under a length after being bumped, and that followed a fair seventh behind Happy Smile when he worked home evenly. Caspar Fownes is the top-ranked trainer for wins at this track and the gelding rates well enough on recent form. The concern is his 1 m record: seven previous attempts for no wins or placings. Seven unplaced runs around 1 m temper confidence, but he can win.

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