Hong Kong Happy Valley - Race 8

Thoroughbred

12 Runners

Restricted

Turf

GOOD

239.3K

VIEW

Verdict

BIENVENUE (5) won well two back before a narrow 0.8L defeat after sitting on the speed at his latest try here. Purton remains in the saddle and the form out of that race has been solid. Loves this track and trip and he can bounce back to winning ways despite the rise in trip. NEVER TOO SOON (8) missed narrowly last start when a $10 chance at this track and trip. Atzeni takes the ride now and he is a two-time winner second-up in the past. Can go one better this time with improvement up his sleeve. REGAL GEM (1) beat home Never Too Soon last start in that photo finish and looks a progressive type. Still has some upside and he maps to get all the favours under Leung. Can bring up back-to-back wins. CHEAHA (4) has trialled well coming into this and is a fresh winner in the past. Can feature in his HK debut.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
5	Third-up today. First-up favourite, won by 1.75 len at this track September 10 over 6f defeating Flying Wrote with 133lbs at $5.60. Second run from a spell sat on the speed and boxed on steadily 2nd of 12 at this track on October 8 over 6f, 0.8 len behind Kyrus Dragon with 121lbs at $3.10. Has a liking for the course and distance and is a top chance again. 1st Pick 5 Bienvenue Jockey: Zac Purton Trainer: David A Hayes J: Zac Purton T: David A Hayes	150	-	-	-	36%	9/5
Analysis Third-up today. First-up favourite, won by 1.75 len at this track September 10 over 6f defeating Flying Wrote with 133lbs at $5.60. Second run from a spell sat on the speed and boxed on steadily 2nd of 12 at this track on October 8 over 6f, 0.8 len behind Kyrus Dragon with 121lbs at $3.10. Has a liking for the course and distance and is a top chance again.
8	Second-up. First-up after three months made ground from midfield, 2nd of 12 at this track on October 8 over 6f, nose behind Regal Gem with 121lbs at $11. Previously second-up 5th of 14 at Sha Tin on October 1 2024 over 7f, 1.75 len behind Winning Gold with 115lbs at $37. Sure to run well. 2nd Pick 8 Never Too Soon Jockey: Andrea Atzeni Trainer: David Hall J: Andrea Atzeni T: David Hall	102	-	-	-	9%	11/1
Analysis Second-up. First-up after three months made ground from midfield, 2nd of 12 at this track on October 8 over 6f, nose behind Regal Gem with 121lbs at $11. Previously second-up 5th of 14 at Sha Tin on October 1 2024 over 7f, 1.75 len behind Winning Gold with 115lbs at $37. Sure to run well.
1	Form hard to fault. Last start won by a nose at this track October 8 over 6f defeating Never Too Soon with 128lbs at $3.70. The run before that 2nd of 12 at this track on September 10 over 6f, 2.25 len behind Storming Dragon carrying 125lbs at $12. Very smart and should be in the finish again. 3rd Pick 1 Regal Gem Jockey: Derek Leung Trainer: F C Lor J: Derek Leung T: F C Lor	112	-	-	-	20%	4/1
Analysis Form hard to fault. Last start won by a nose at this track October 8 over 6f defeating Never Too Soon with 128lbs at $3.70. The run before that 2nd of 12 at this track on September 10 over 6f, 2.25 len behind Storming Dragon carrying 125lbs at $12. Very smart and should be in the finish again.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Sloppy

A wet racetrack condition, typically with a firm base and water settling on top.

Pari-Mutuel

A pool style wagering system, where all money input through betting is divided among those with winning tickets (save for various deductions by the track operators).

Main Track Only

A horse entered for main track only (MTO) is one hoping the weather forecast or track conditions will move the race off the turf course and onto the main track. They are scratched the morning of the race if the conditions stay dry.